Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3218 GP · 3y
TOI	16.24	16.37	16.09	15.73	16.97
PP TOI	0.17	0.19	0.11	0.28	0.59
G	10	9	7	11	12
A	25	19	22	16	30
PTS	35	28	29	27	42
PPP	1	0	0	0	3
SOG	115	114	106	122	140
PIM	66	66	50	82	72
Hits	117	115	120	110	144
Blocks	35	31	27	35	52

Sample: 82 GP · 1,121 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

99Cole Sillinger0

100Noah Cates0

101Ben Kindel0

102Yanni Gourde-1

103Justin Sourdif-1

104Jiri Kulich-1

105Peyton Krebs-3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 7 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 48% below his 3-year rate last season (1.07 against 2.04).

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 25% above last season, 28 to 35.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Josh AndersonLW,RW · Montreal Canadiens92% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs92% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Ridly GreigC,LW,RW · Ottawa Senators91% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Yanni Gourde is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.24	16.37	16.97	-4%
5v5 TOI	13.58	13.68	14.02	-2%
PP TOI	0.17	0.19	0.59	-67%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.24: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.58: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.17: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.19	5.35	6.30	-15%
G/60	0.37	0.43	0.41	+4%
iSH%	7.18	8.04	6.56	+22%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.74	-15%
iCF/60	–	10.22	11.85	-14%
iSCF/60	–	5.46	6.55	-17%
iHDCF/60	–	3.00	3.47	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 8.0% vs a 6.6% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 7.2% pulls the goal rate ~13% down.

RiskShot volume down 15% (5v5 SOG/60 5.35 vs 6.30) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.76 (1st half) to 0.51 (2nd).

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.84	7.35	8.65	-15%
IPP	70.14	71.93	67.95	+6%
1A/60	0.61	0.53	0.73	-27%
2A/60	0.56	0.27	0.61	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.3%, IPP 71.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.17	0.19	0.59	-67%
PP iSH%	13.77	0.00	17.66	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.62	7.52	7.90	-5%
PP ixG/60	–	1.70	2.05	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.68	2.67	3.28	-19%
Hits/60	5.96	5.83	6.95	-16%
Blks/60	1.18	1.07	2.04	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.83/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 5.96 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.67/60 and 2nd-half 0.83 below the 1.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.18/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.04 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.