Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H242 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3207 GP · 3y
TOI	15.53	15.22	14.31	14.50	15.50
PP TOI	0.21	0.29	0.08	0.51	1.01
G	▲11	8	7	9	11
A	24	25	19	32	19
PTS	▲35	33	26	42	30
PPP	0	1	0	2	3
SOG	138	138	128	149	150
PIM	42	37	37	38	41
Hits	122	113	129	97	118
Blocks	53	45	54	34	57

Sample: 81 GP · 1,079 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

96Mavrik Bourque1

97Brett Howden1

98Evan Rodrigues0

99Cole Sillinger0

100Noah Cates0

101Ben Kindel0

102Yanni Gourde-1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). Goals only, nothing else. Explicitly NO power-play bet: his PP TOI was 0.29 for the season and effectively zero in Q3 and Q4, and there is no signal that changes, so the outside reads of 35-38 that assume PP involvement are not followed. Lands ~35 on the strength of the finishing regression alone.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 72% below his 3-year rate last season (0.29 against 1.01).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 54 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 38% above last season, 8 to 11.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings93% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Cole Sillinger is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.53	15.22	15.50	-2%
5v5 TOI	13.61	13.33	12.54	+6%
PP TOI	0.21	0.29	1.01	-72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.53: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 13.61: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.21: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.63	6.44	6.96	-7%
G/60	0.34	0.28	0.39	-29%
iSH%	5.10	4.35	5.64	-23%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.72	-10%
iCF/60	–	11.72	13.32	-12%
iSCF/60	–	6.72	7.44	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	2.83	3.05	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.3% sits near the 5.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.67	8.97	8.30	+8%
IPP	53.74	50.96	57.15	-11%
1A/60	0.54	0.50	0.56	-10%
2A/60	0.44	0.56	0.35	+61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.0%, IPP 51.0%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.56 vs 3-yr 0.35) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.21	0.29	1.01	-72%
PP iSH%	9.73	0.00	12.48	-100%
PP SOG/60	4.33	10.39	11.47	-9%
PP ixG/60	–	1.71	1.90	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.3→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.28	2.06	2.15	-4%
Hits/60	6.31	5.94	6.63	-10%
Blks/60	2.28	1.94	2.77	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.77/60 and 2nd-half 6.79 vs a 5.94 season rate (6.63 3-yr) (69th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.03/60 and 2nd-half 2.42 vs a 1.94 season rate (2.77 3-yr) (30th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.28/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.