Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.
Metrics worth highlighting
The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year
Second-half fade
PPP
Power play points ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.
Second-half surge
1A/60
1A/60 finished the year 74% above where it started (0.38 in the first half, 0.66 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.
Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.
Similar & complementary players
Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
the profile below
vs Similar
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
complements fill the gaps
Deployment
Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Dan Muse (PIT)
Last year: Dan Muse full season (1st yr) — no change
Metric
26-27 proj
2025-26
Prev 3
Diff
TOI
16.12
15.06
n/a
5v5 TOI
12.18
11.82
n/a
PP TOI
1.69
1.83
n/a
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP 17 · 20 · 23 · 17
TOI*
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
5v5 TOI
PP TOI
TOI → 16.12: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 12.18: role tapered late (Q4 11.0 vs 11.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.69: role tapered late (Q4 1.6 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
Shooting — volume & conversion
How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindAge 19 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.
TailwindAge 19 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).
Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense
Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 56.4%).
Power play
PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextPP role steady at ~1.7 PP TOI/gp.
Physical — PIM · hits · blocks
Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.28/60 and 2nd-half 1.54 below the 1.85 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.71/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.
RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.89/60 and 2nd-half 2.46 below the 3.10 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.01/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.