Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2627 GP	H225-26	H127 GP	Prev 3164 GP · 3y
TOI	16.47	16.66	–	15.73	16.53
PP TOI	2.05	2.09	–	2.09	2.03
G	24	21	–	21	27
A	35	30	–	30	34
PTS	59	51	–	51	62
PPP	11	12	–	12	11
SOG	153	94	–	94	195
PIM	18	6	–	6	27
Hits	68	55	–	55	75
Blocks	22	18	–	18	24

Sample: 27 GP · 360 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

76Morgan Frost16

77Matty Beniers16

78Anton Frondell15

79Tyler Seguin15

80Curtis Douglas13

81Martin Pospisil10

82Pavel Zacha10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (31.65 against 11.70).

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 63% above last season, 94 to 153.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 24% above last season, 55 to 68.

Below his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 71% below his 3-year rate last season (0.33 against 1.15).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres87% match
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins86% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyler Seguin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.47	16.66	16.53	+1%
5v5 TOI	12.82	13.35	12.69	+5%
PP TOI	2.05	2.09	2.03	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 0 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.47: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.82: role tapered late (Q4 11.1 vs 13.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 2.05: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.02	3.16	8.39	-62%
G/60	0.72	1.00	0.98	+2%
iSH%	20.08	31.65	11.70	+170%
ixG/60	–	0.42	0.92	-54%
iCF/60	–	7.16	14.31	-50%
iSCF/60	–	4.66	9.17	-49%
iHDCF/60	–	1.33	4.30	-69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 0 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 31.6% vs a 11.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.42 (36th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 20.1% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 62% (5v5 SOG/60 3.16 vs 8.39) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.30	13.28	9.96	+33%
IPP	65.06	57.91	76.86	-25%
1A/60	0.74	0.67	0.66	+1%
2A/60	0.58	0.17	0.75	-77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 0 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.3% vs a 10.0% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.05	2.09	2.03	+3%
PP iSH%	15.77	11.16	19.10	-42%
PP SOG/60	10.26	9.59	12.27	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	2.33	1.93	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 0 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.0 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (11.2% vs 19.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.45	0.33	1.15	-71%
Hits/60	3.51	3.00	4.01	-25%
Blks/60	1.08	1.00	1.16	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 6 · 0 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.43/60 and 2nd-half 3.94 vs a 3.00 season rate (4.01 3-yr) (38th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (3rd pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.