Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H240 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3168 GP · 3y
TOI	20.53	20.65	18.31	19.20	19.68
PP TOI	3.44	3.47	3.11	3.82	3.18
G	19	19	19	19	21
A	52	54	60	47	53
PTS	71	73	80	66	74
PPP	23	20	23	18	23
SOG	204	186	188	185	223
PIM	33	62	42	81	29
Hits	32	29	25	34	50
Blocks	54	51	48	53	53

Sample: 81 GP · 1,234 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

31Tomas Hertl78

32Evgeni Malkin70

33Quinton Byfield68

34Mathew Barzal66

35John Tavares66

36Morgan Geekie64

37Elias Pettersson63

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextKeep top Islanders secure; discount depth-scoring upside. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 47% below last season, 62 to 33.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 39% below his 3-year rate last season (0.68 against 1.12).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 41% below his 3-year rate last season (1.31 against 2.22).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 60 pace in the second half after 47 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks
William EklundLW,RW · Ottawa Senators83% match
shared: A, Blocks
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguins82% match
shared: A, PPP, PIM, SOG
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitals82% match
shared: A, Blocks, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mathew Barzal is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.53	20.65	19.68	+5%
5v5 TOI	15.07	15.24	15.29	-0%
PP TOI	3.44	3.47	3.18	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.53: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.07: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.44: established top role held near 3.5 — the late dip (Q4 3.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.83	5.83	7.45	-22%
G/60	0.52	0.58	0.61	-4%
iSH%	8.90	9.95	8.13	+22%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.69	-12%
iCF/60	–	12.30	13.71	-10%
iSCF/60	–	6.08	7.14	-15%
iHDCF/60	–	2.82	3.06	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.9% vs a 8.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.9% pulls the goal rate ~11% down.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 5.83 vs 7.45) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.85	9.21	8.42	+9%
IPP	63.31	59.57	67.89	-12%
1A/60	0.85	0.68	1.12	-39%
2A/60	0.30	0.39	0.26	+51%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.2%, IPP 59.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.44	3.47	3.18	+9%
PP iSH%	9.79	5.92	10.89	-46%
PP SOG/60	7.87	7.26	10.33	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	1.06	1.10	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextBoost Schaefer usage baseline; small ceiling trim for Horvat/Barzal. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~3.4 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.95	1.36	0.93	+46%
Hits/60	1.47	1.31	2.22	-41%
Blks/60	2.20	2.19	2.29	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.91/60 and 2nd-half 1.07 below the 1.31 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.22 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.82/60 and 2nd-half 2.05 below the 2.19 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.20/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.29 3-yr mark.