Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	16.81	16.92	15.97	16.30	16.04
PP TOI	0.99	1.11	0.78	1.44	1.90
G	19	20	24	16	16
A	19	18	18	18	22
PTS	38	38	42	34	38
PPP	2	3	0	6	4
SOG	174	142	133	151	160
PIM	36	28	40	16	37
Hits	54	49	31	67	78
Blocks	60	52	47	57	47

Sample: 82 GP · 1,066 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

105Tij Iginla8

106Taylor Hall7

107Oliver Bjorkstrand6

108Joel Farabee5

109Colton Dach4

110Ivar Stenberg4

111Tye Kartye4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CGY pass). Cleanest bump on the Calgary board: we had him at 33 when his last-year per-82 is 38 AND his prev3 per-82 is 38 — we were below every version of him. This fills a gap the engine has rather than fighting it. Deliberately a DEPLOY-ONLY bet: no rate multiplier, because the claim is purely that his minutes were mis-read, not that his rates are wrong. PP LEFT ALONE at 0.99 — that cut is real and well-sampled over 82 GP, and Gridin/Zary/Sharangovich all compete for PP2. Lands 38, matching one outside read (37.4/39.6) and under the other's 41. CAVEAT: the ev bump carries SOG to 174, above both his last-year per-82 (142) and prev3 (160) and above the outside read's 151 — the shot volume is the softest part of this bet.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (5.58 in the first half, 17.70 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (4.96 in the first half, 16.48 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 23% above last season, 142 to 174.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 29% above last season, 28 to 36.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames86% match
shared: Blocks
Anton LundellC · Florida Panthers86% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Blocks
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Joel Farabee is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year: Ryan Huska full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.81	16.92	16.04	+5%
5v5 TOI	13.18	13.01	13.10	-1%
PP TOI	0.99	1.11	1.90	-42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.81: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.18: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.99: role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 1.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.26	6.36	7.37	-14%
G/60	0.70	0.73	0.79	-7%
iSH%	11.17	11.48	10.66	+8%
ixG/60	–	0.70	0.71	-2%
iCF/60	–	11.42	12.75	-10%
iSCF/60	–	6.58	7.14	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	3.32	3.48	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.5% sits near the 10.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.70 (61st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 6.36 vs 7.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.86 (1st half) to 0.53 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.86	7.62	8.16	-7%
IPP	68.98	67.56	70.73	-4%
1A/60	0.50	0.45	0.63	-29%
2A/60	0.27	0.34	0.33	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.6%, IPP 67.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.99	1.11	1.90	-42%
PP iSH%	5.58	8.34	3.58	+133%
PP SOG/60	9.50	7.91	7.23	+9%
PP ixG/60	–	1.22	1.11	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.1→1.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 1.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.61	1.35	1.94	-31%
Hits/60	2.58	2.70	4.13	-35%
Blks/60	2.26	2.19	2.35	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 19 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.34/60 and 2nd-half 1.67 below the 2.70 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.58/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.13 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.19/60 (38th pct league-wide) → 2.26 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.11/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.