Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3242 GP · 3y
TOI	14.04	13.64	12.82	13.90	15.66
PP TOI	2.65	3.14	2.66	3.59	2.34
G	15	12	13	12	21
A	25	20	13	28	30
PTS	40	33	25	40	51
PPP	15	14	11	18	16
SOG	138	133	135	132	182
PIM	21	16	17	16	16
Hits	99	87	102	73	69
Blocks	33	40	41	39	28

Sample: 80 GP · 818 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

104Scott Laughton8

105Tij Iginla8

106Taylor Hall7

107Oliver Bjorkstrand6

108Joel Farabee5

109Colton Dach4

110Ivar Stenberg4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 59% below where it started (1.15 in the first half, 0.48 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (3.75 against 10.39).

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 69% above his 3-year rate last season (2.57 against 1.52).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets90% match
Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruins87% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken86% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres86% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Oliver Bjorkstrand is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Brandon HagelLW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: A, PIM
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, PIM
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year (TBL, traded): Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.04	13.64	15.66	-13%
5v5 TOI	10.66	10.23	12.73	-20%
PP TOI	2.65	3.14	2.34	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.04: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.66: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.65: role tapered late (Q4 1.9 vs 3.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.87	5.87	7.87	-25%
G/60	0.30	0.22	0.82	-73%
iSH%	7.60	3.75	10.39	-64%
ixG/60	–	0.68	0.75	-10%
iCF/60	–	12.25	15.66	-22%
iSCF/60	–	6.89	7.74	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	2.71	2.96	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.7% sits near the 10.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.68 (59th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 5.87 vs 7.87) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.34	8.01	8.99	-11%
IPP	69.86	69.11	71.37	-3%
1A/60	0.76	0.81	0.64	+26%
2A/60	0.30	0.29	0.39	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 69.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.65	3.14	2.34	+34%
PP iSH%	17.19	18.74	16.07	+17%
PP SOG/60	11.57	11.47	11.87	-3%
PP ixG/60	–	2.03	1.84	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.1→2.7 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.9 vs 3.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.03 vs 1.84) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.79	0.59	0.78	-24%
Hits/60	6.49	5.94	3.84	+55%
Blks/60	2.24	2.57	1.52	+69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.01/60 and 2nd-half 7.28 vs a 5.94 season rate (3.84 3-yr) (69th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.49/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.34/60 and 2nd-half 2.64 vs a 2.57 season rate (1.52 3-yr) (51st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.24/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.