Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3226 GP · 3y
TOI	16.84	16.86	15.52	16.07	16.75
PP TOI	2.76	3.10	2.47	3.73	2.35
G	28	23	25	21	27
A	22	19	16	22	23
PTS	50	42	41	44	50
PPP	21	24	26	23	16
SOG	207	222	207	237	198
PIM	16	12	14	10	19
Hits	77	67	63	71	105
Blocks	41	34	41	27	42

Sample: 81 GP · 969 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

47Patrik Laine51

48Jared McCann49

49Vasily Podkolzin47

50Jake DeBrusk45

51Jack McBain45

52Tyler Bertuzzi44

53Eeli Tolvanen42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 78% below his 3-year rate last season (2.54 against 11.66).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 41 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 34% below where it started (3.73 in the first half, 2.47 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 47% above his 3-year rate last season (4.49 against 3.04).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kyle PalmieriRW · New York Islanders87% match
shared: G, SOG
Brock BoeserLW,RW · Vancouver Canucks84% match
shared: PPP, G
Jared McCannC,LW · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets82% match
shared: G, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jake DeBrusk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.84	16.86	16.75	+1%
5v5 TOI	12.20	11.98	12.53	-4%
PP TOI	2.76	3.10	2.35	+31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 18 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.84: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.20: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.76: role tapered late (Q4 2.5 vs 3.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.48	7.48	7.82	-4%
G/60	0.26	0.19	0.91	-79%
iSH%	7.83	2.54	11.66	-78%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.88	-3%
iCF/60	–	13.98	13.78	+1%
iSCF/60	–	8.04	8.43	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	4.33	4.53	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 18 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.5% sits near the 11.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.98 (1st half) to 0.77 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.95	7.33	9.10	-19%
IPP	55.76	51.96	61.04	-15%
1A/60	0.40	0.43	0.40	+7%
2A/60	0.39	0.31	0.38	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 18 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.3%, IPP 52.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.76	3.10	2.35	+31%
PP iSH%	20.50	24.69	17.47	+41%
PP SOG/60	17.63	18.43	14.21	+30%
PP ixG/60	–	4.49	3.04	+47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 18 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.1→2.8 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 2.5 vs 3.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 4.49 vs 3.04) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.68	0.62	0.76	-19%
Hits/60	4.24	3.71	5.49	-32%
Blks/60	2.04	1.92	2.16	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 18 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.56/60 and 2nd-half 3.38 below the 3.71 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.49 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.05/60 and 2nd-half 2.25 vs a 1.92 season rate (2.16 3-yr) (30th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.04/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.