Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H239 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3223 GP · 3y
TOI	15.89	16.04	14.97	15.90	14.85
PP TOI	1.58	1.85	1.52	2.17	1.79
G	20	13	13	13	21
A	20	25	17	34	18
PTS	40	38	30	46	39
PPP	10	15	11	19	8
SOG	148	148	161	136	149
PIM	28	32	31	31	22
Hits	192	197	176	218	198
Blocks	76	85	69	101	68

Sample: 78 GP · 978 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

50Jake DeBrusk45

51Jack McBain45

52Tyler Bertuzzi44

53Eeli Tolvanen42

54Pavol Regenda42

55Brayden Schenn42

56Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindModest 5v5 lift for Seattle's young forwards; cleaner PP structure. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 81% below where it started (0.73 in the first half, 0.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 65% above where it started (0.44 in the first half, 0.73 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 54% above last season, 13 to 20.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 42% above his 3-year rate last season (1.84 against 1.30).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Eeli Tolvanen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 5
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.89	16.04	14.85	+8%
5v5 TOI	12.47	12.55	12.47	+1%
PP TOI	1.58	1.85	1.79	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.89: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.47: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.58: role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.89	5.70	6.65	-14%
G/60	0.42	0.31	0.93	-67%
iSH%	10.40	5.44	13.99	-61%
ixG/60	–	0.57	0.67	-15%
iCF/60	–	12.87	13.79	-7%
iSCF/60	–	6.62	7.25	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	2.27	2.93	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.4% sits near the 14.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.57 (44th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 5.70 vs 6.65) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.44→0.73 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.36	7.96	9.03	-12%
IPP	56.94	53.26	64.87	-18%
1A/60	0.37	0.43	0.37	+17%
2A/60	0.33	0.25	0.35	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 53.3% sits below the 64.9% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.58	1.85	1.79	+3%
PP iSH%	11.97	16.10	8.97	+79%
PP SOG/60	12.69	12.92	11.75	+10%
PP ixG/60	–	1.84	1.30	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.8→1.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 1.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.84 vs 1.30) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.25	1.23	1.27	-3%
Hits/60	10.80	10.79	11.27	-4%
Blks/60	3.93	4.11	3.80	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 9.36/60 and 2nd-half 9.63 below the 10.79 season rate — projected DOWN to 10.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 11.27 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.97/60 and 2nd-half 3.31 below the 4.11 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.93/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.80 3-yr mark.