Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2624 GP	H220 GP	H14 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.35	13.35	13.21	–	–
PP TOI	1.35	1.47	1.29	–	–
G	28	31	16	–	–
A	3	3	4	–	–
PTS	31	34	21	–	–
PPP	11	14	4	–	–
SOG	137	144	114	–	–
PIM	74	68	66	–	–
Hits	211	202	217	–	–
Blocks	21	20	20	–	–

Sample: 24 GP · 273 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

51Jack McBain45

52Tyler Bertuzzi44

53Eeli Tolvanen42

54Pavol Regenda42

55Brayden Schenn42

56Ryan Nugent-Hopkins42

57Boone Jenner41

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 21% below last season, 14 to 11.

Top of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (1.06).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks87% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Ryan LeonardRW · Washington Capitals85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
A.J. GreerLW · Anaheim Ducks85% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Martin PospisilC,RW · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pavol Regenda is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.35	13.35	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.51	11.41	n/a
PP TOI	1.35	1.47	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 4 · 14 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.35: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 11.51: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 1.35: role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 1.5 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.70	6.79	n/a
G/60	1.08	1.10	n/a
iSH%	16.20	16.20	n/a
ixG/60	–	1.06	n/a
iCF/60	–	11.17	n/a
iSCF/60	–	8.11	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	5.92	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 4 · 14 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.49	10.49	n/a
IPP	45.96	45.96	n/a
1A/60	0.22	0.22	n/a
2A/60	0.00	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 4 · 14 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 46.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.35	1.47	n/a
PP iSH%	44.44	44.44	n/a
PP SOG/60	13.08	15.30	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	2.62	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 4 · 14 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.4 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	4.72	4.38	n/a
Hits/60	12.97	12.49	n/a
Blks/60	1.33	1.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 4 · 14 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 18.30/60 and 2nd-half 14.48 vs a 12.49 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (90th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 12.97/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.66/60 and 2nd-half 1.38 vs a 1.31 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (11th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.33/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (4.38/60 (91st pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.