Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2672 GP	H240 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3150 GP · 3y
TOI	18.28	17.73	16.55	17.10	20.51
PP TOI	2.60	1.91	1.47	2.46	3.53
G	25	19	13	28	36
A	32	36	36	36	37
PTS	57	56	49	64	73
PPP	▲14	5	2	8	25
SOG	191	181	154	216	237
PIM	25	30	26	34	17
Hits	73	63	59	68	100
Blocks	38	31	36	24	42

Sample: 72 GP · 948 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

60Jason Zucker40

61Jeffrey Viel40

62Lawson Crouse39

63Valeri Nichushkin38

64Alex Steeves38

65Tyson Foerster36

66Brock Boeser36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP-role bounce on the CBJ trade. His 2025-26 PP collapse (1.74 PP pts/60, ~4 PPP) was mostly the crowded COL PP1, not lost skill - ixG stayed strong (1.12). New team gives him PP1-mix minutes he couldn't crack in Colorado. Blend toward his prev-3 PP form without fully restoring it: PP TOI 2.0 -> 2.6, PPP ~9 -> ~13. Even-strength line left to the engine. 2026-07-27 CBJ pass: HELD at ~57 (outside reads bracket us at 53/56/60). Flagged for a future pass - this entry stacks a big deploy leap (Q4 finish 1.03 -> set 2.6) on top of a dependent PPP x1.25 that was never softened; if it is ever revisited, cut the PPP mult toward 1.15 rather than raising the total.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 36% above last season, 1.91 to 2.60.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 49% below where it started (12.13 in the first half, 6.14 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (1.01 against 1.55).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jared McCannC,LW · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: SOG, G
Cutter GauthierLW,RW · Anaheim Ducks86% match
shared: G, SOG
Kyle PalmieriRW · New York Islanders86% match
shared: G, SOG
Jimmy SnuggerudRW · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: G, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Valeri Nichushkin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year (COL, traded): Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.28	17.73	20.51	-14%
5v5 TOI	13.49	13.18	14.24	-7%
PP TOI	2.60	1.91	3.53	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 15 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.28: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.49: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.60: traded off COL, where a stacked PP1 (MacKinnon/Makar/Necas) buried him to 1.91 PP TOI and cratered his PP output in 2025-26. On CBJ he's a genuine PP1-mix option on a far less crowded unit - bump PP minutes 2.02 -> 2.6, which honestly recomputes PPP off the added ice.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.82	7.97	8.09	-1%
G/60	0.72	0.76	0.70	+8%
iSH%	9.22	9.54	8.70	+10%
ixG/60	–	0.95	0.81	+18%
iCF/60	–	16.00	14.46	+11%
iSCF/60	–	8.66	9.26	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	3.92	4.01	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 15 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.95 (91st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.81 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.08 (1st half) to 0.86 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.67	9.53	9.87	-3%
IPP	64.50	68.06	59.27	+15%
1A/60	0.59	0.57	0.73	-22%
2A/60	0.60	0.95	0.45	+111%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 15 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.5%, IPP 68.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.00 vs 14.46) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.95 vs 3-yr 0.45) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.60	1.91	3.53	-46%
PP iSH%	24.57	5.94	29.82	-80%
PP SOG/60	7.32	7.41	11.79	-37%
PP ixG/60	–	1.96	2.58	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 15 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.9→2.6 PP TOI/gp (traded off COL, where a stacked PP1 (MacKinnon/Makar/Necas) buried him to 1.91 PP TOI and cratered his PP output in 2025-26. On CBJ he's a genuine PP1-mix option on a far less crowded unit - bump PP minutes 2.02 -> 2.6, which honestly recomputes PPP off the added ice.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.73	0.76	0.67	+13%
Hits/60	3.75	3.29	4.86	-32%
Blks/60	1.22	1.01	1.55	-35%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 15 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.35/60 and 2nd-half 3.00 below the 3.29 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.75/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.86 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.17/60 and 2nd-half 1.23 vs a 1.01 season rate (1.55 3-yr) (3rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.22/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.