Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H239 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	17.40	16.70	16.73	15.10	–
PP TOI	2.43	2.26	2.40	2.08	–
G	29	25	31	17	–
A	39	35	45	23	–
PTS	68	60	75	40	–
PPP	12	11	11	11	–
SOG	235	198	234	154	–
PIM	25	21	25	16	–
Hits	86	83	79	89	–
Blocks	44	46	34	60	–

Sample: 70 GP · 961 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

39Nikolaj Ehlers66

40William Eklund66

41Owen Tippett66

42Jimmy Snuggerud64

43Lucas Raymond64

44Bryan Rust64

45Morgan Geekie64

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (0.35 in the first half, 1.08 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 135% above where it started (6.88 in the first half, 16.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 19% above last season, 21 to 25.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kyle PalmieriRW · New York Islanders87% match
shared: G, SOG
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: G, SOG, A
Artturi LehkonenLW · Colorado Avalanche85% match
shared: G, Blocks
Dylan HollowayLW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Blocks, G, A, SOG

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jimmy Snuggerud is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mason MarchmentLW · San Jose Sharkscovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP
Jonathan HuberdeauLW · Calgary Flamescovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP
Josh NorrisC · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: PIM, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	17.40	16.70	n/a
5v5 TOI	14.84	13.74	n/a
PP TOI	2.43	2.26	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 10 · 20 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.40: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 14.84: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.3, Q4 14.7) over the full-year 13.7; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 2.43: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	8.27	7.86	n/a
G/60	0.99	0.94	n/a
iSH%	11.96	11.96	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.96	n/a
iCF/60	–	15.73	n/a
iSCF/60	–	8.99	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 10 · 20 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindNudge up a top-six scoring line; pay-up profile after a strong finish. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.78→1.03 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	11.85	11.85	n/a
IPP	75.49	75.49	n/a
1A/60	0.75	0.75	n/a
2A/60	0.62	0.62	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 10 · 20 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.8%, IPP 75.5%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	2.43	2.26	n/a
PP iSH%	14.74	14.74	n/a
PP SOG/60	14.97	12.89	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	2.67	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 10 · 20 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 60-70 on line quality and PP growth. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~2.4 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.30	1.12	n/a
Hits/60	4.01	4.24	n/a
Blks/60	1.91	2.18	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 10 · 20 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise baseline toward 70+ and keep a strong multi-category floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.79/60 and 2nd-half 3.77 below the 4.24 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.01/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.50/60 and 2nd-half 1.50 below the 2.18 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.91/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.