Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3232 GP · 3y
TOI	16.82	16.84	15.91	15.58	16.67
PP TOI	2.26	2.22	2.33	2.11	2.32
G	27	28	30	27	27
A	25	23	21	26	25
PTS	52	52	51	52	51
PPP	9	7	12	2	10
SOG	240	224	247	200	250
PIM	22	32	20	45	16
Hits	159	168	179	157	137
Blocks	61	51	60	41	62

Sample: 81 GP · 1,061 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

33Rickard Rakell67

34Nikolaj Ehlers66

35William Eklund66

36Owen Tippett66

37Matthew Knies64

38Morgan Geekie64

39Gabriel Landeskog63

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 61% below where it started (0.92 in the first half, 0.35 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 73% above his 3-year rate last season (2.47 against 1.43).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 60 pace in the second half after 41 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 29% above last season, 7 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam FantilliC · Columbus Blue Jackets90% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, Hits
Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Hits, SOG, Blocks
Timo MeierLW,RW · New Jersey Devils81% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, Hits
Shane PintoC · Ottawa Senators81% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Owen Tippett is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.82	16.84	16.67	+1%
5v5 TOI	13.21	13.11	13.31	-2%
PP TOI	2.26	2.22	2.32	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.82: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.21: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.26: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.87	8.87	10.36	-14%
G/60	0.99	1.07	1.01	+5%
iSH%	11.20	12.06	9.79	+23%
ixG/60	–	0.89	0.85	+4%
iCF/60	–	17.41	20.21	-14%
iSCF/60	–	9.55	9.75	-2%
iHDCF/60	–	4.13	3.67	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.89 (86th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.85 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 8.87 vs 10.36) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.80→0.99 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.69	10.03	9.15	+10%
IPP	75.15	82.28	68.71	+20%
1A/60	0.61	0.62	0.66	-6%
2A/60	0.30	0.40	0.29	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 82.3% vs 68.7% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.13 vs 3.67) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.26	2.22	2.32	-5%
PP iSH%	9.10	7.30	10.40	-30%
PP SOG/60	14.10	13.70	13.91	-2%
PP ixG/60	–	2.47	1.43	+73%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 2.47 vs 1.43) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.81	0.90	0.70	+29%
Hits/60	7.91	8.53	6.98	+22%
Blks/60	2.86	2.60	3.23	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 8.53/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 7.91 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.60/60 and 2nd-half 3.08 vs a 2.60 season rate (3.23 3-yr) (51st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.86/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.