Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	16.58	15.50	14.84	13.96	–
PP TOI	3.73	3.02	3.51	2.53	–
G	24	19	18	20	–
A	48	43	40	46	–
PTS	72	62	58	66	–
PPP	24	20	20	20	–
SOG	154	127	146	108	–
PIM	40	34	32	36	–
Hits	27	28	20	36	–
Blocks	24	26	20	32	–

Sample: 82 GP · 932 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

54Patrik Laine51

55Will Smith49

56Nick Schmaltz49

57Ivan Demidov48

58Jordan Kyrou48

59Vasily Podkolzin47

60Jake DeBrusk45

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindCarry 80 points as the ceiling above the 65-70 base. · Corey Sznajder (All Three Zones)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 104% above where it started (5.09 in the first half, 10.41 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 54% below where it started (20.21 in the first half, 9.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 26% above last season, 19 to 24.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 20% above last season, 20 to 24.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: A, PPP
Luke EvangelistaRW · Nashville Predators82% match
shared: A
Pavel ZachaC,LW · Boston Bruins81% match
shared: A
Pavel BuchnevichC,LW,RW · St. Louis Blues81% match
shared: A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ivan Demidov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Bobby McMannLW · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, Hits, G
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	16.58	15.50	n/a
5v5 TOI	12.11	11.37	n/a
PP TOI	3.73	3.02	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.58: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 12.11: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 3.73: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.5, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.0; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload; Boost toward a top-six/PP1 sophomore line.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.37	5.21	n/a
G/60	0.79	0.77	n/a
iSH%	14.78	14.78	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.58	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.94	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.98	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.19	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 20 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	14.52	14.52	n/a
IPP	71.85	71.85	n/a
1A/60	0.97	0.97	n/a
2A/60	0.71	0.71	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise sophomore baseline toward 70+ on rising role. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 14.5%, IPP 71.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	3.73	3.02	n/a
PP iSH%	20.63	20.63	n/a
PP SOG/60	9.68	8.24	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindBoost toward a top-six/PP1 sophomore line. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.0→3.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.5, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.0; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload; Boost toward a top-six/PP1 sophomore line.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.77	1.54	n/a
Hits/60	1.57	1.74	n/a
Blks/60	1.23	1.42	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.33/60 and 2nd-half 1.29 below the 1.74 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.57/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.80/60 and 2nd-half 1.02 below the 1.42 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.23/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.