Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2660 GP	H220 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	17.50	16.41	16.35	15.51	–
PP TOI	2.50	2.52	2.58	2.49	–
G	20	19	30	14	–
A	▲34	29	27	29	–
PTS	▲54	48	57	43	–
PPP	▲11	7	8	6	–
SOG	187	180	195	173	–
PIM	66	64	85	54	–
Hits	121	118	104	124	–
Blocks	54	44	57	37	–

Sample: 60 GP · 794 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

36Owen Tippett66

37Matthew Knies64

38Morgan Geekie64

39Gabriel Landeskog63

40Trevor Zegras62

41Brad Marchand61

42Kiefer Sherwood60

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): L2 LW; TOI bumped from an injury-cautious L3 level (~16.3) to a real top-6 role (17.5 total / 14.6 5v5), production scaled to match (46 -> 51 pts). Three deploy knobs because ev drives counts, all drives the headline TOI, and 5v5 drives its line - all set so the card is coherent. Hedged for the long layoff. Bio hand-filled: NST's bios export dropped him after his ~3-year injury absence, so the DB has no bio row (age 33 still resolves via the Fantrax fallback). PPP now pinned at 11 (see the set block) - the old x1.13 restored his own 1.99 PP pts/60, which was the lowest rate on the roster while he held the 3rd-highest forward PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 30 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 86% above where it started (7.12 in the first half, 13.27 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 57% above last season, 7 to 11.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 17% above last season, 29 to 34.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mason McTavishC · St. Louis Blues88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Dmitri VoronkovC,LW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks
Anton LundellC · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Blake ColemanLW,RW · Minnesota Wild84% match
shared: PIM, Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Gabriel Landeskog is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Mark StoneRW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	17.50	16.41	n/a
5v5 TOI	14.60	13.24	n/a
PP TOI	2.50	2.52	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 7 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.50: headline-TOI display to match the L2 role (from an injury-cautious 16.3). Pairs with the ev mult so the card's shown minutes and its production agree.
5v5 TOI → 14.60: 5v5 line display to match the bumped ev minutes (13.3 -> 14.6), keeping the deployment bars internally consistent with the 17.5 total.
PP TOI → 2.50: holds the rookie-season role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	8.32	8.16	n/a
G/60	0.85	0.83	n/a
iSH%	10.17	10.17	n/a
ixG/60	–	1.09	n/a
iCF/60	–	15.11	n/a
iSCF/60	–	10.05	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	5.14	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 7 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.04	10.04	n/a
IPP	50.99	50.99	n/a
1A/60	0.30	0.30	n/a
2A/60	0.68	0.68	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 7 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 51.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	2.50	2.52	n/a
PP iSH%	10.48	10.48	n/a
PP SOG/60	4.58	7.54	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.88	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 7 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.98	3.10	n/a
Hits/60	5.66	6.04	n/a
Blks/60	2.72	2.42	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 7 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 6.18/60 and 2nd-half 4.89 below the 6.04 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.66/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.12/60 and 2nd-half 2.66 vs a 2.42 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (46th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.72/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.