Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	18.78	18.80	17.38	17.60	17.99
PP TOI	3.20	3.25	3.10	3.39	2.92
G	27	26	27	24	26
A	48	52	40	64	42
PTS	75	78	67	88	68
PPP	26	28	19	36	25
SOG	181	177	171	183	168
PIM	29	23	23	22	25
Hits	49	44	47	41	53
Blocks	29	30	27	32	27

Sample: 80 GP · 1,122 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

40William Eklund66

41Owen Tippett66

42Jimmy Snuggerud64

43Lucas Raymond64

44Bryan Rust64

45Morgan Geekie64

46Brad Marchand61

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 40 pace in the second half after 64 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 26% above last season, 23 to 29.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsC,LW · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: PPP, A
Matt DucheneC,RW · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: A, PPP
Nikolaj EhlersLW,RW · Carolina Hurricanes87% match
shared: A, PPP
Jesper BrattRW · New Jersey Devils87% match
shared: A, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Lucas Raymond is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.78	18.80	17.99	+4%
5v5 TOI	14.22	14.03	13.54	+4%
PP TOI	3.20	3.25	2.92	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 22 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.78: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.22: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.20: established top role held near 3.2 — the late dip (Q4 2.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.20	6.20	6.29	-1%
G/60	0.82	0.86	0.80	+8%
iSH%	13.19	13.87	12.69	+9%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.68	-8%
iCF/60	–	14.01	12.19	+15%
iSCF/60	–	5.83	7.22	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	2.30	3.32	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 22 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 13.9% sits near the 12.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.97	10.27	9.17	+12%
IPP	74.40	75.57	71.21	+6%
1A/60	0.73	0.80	0.61	+30%
2A/60	0.35	0.32	0.37	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 22 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.3%, IPP 75.6%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 14.01 vs 12.19) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.20	3.25	2.92	+11%
PP iSH%	16.09	14.62	17.15	-15%
PP SOG/60	10.78	11.08	9.58	+16%
PP ixG/60	–	1.42	1.34	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 22 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.86	0.64	1.08	-41%
Hits/60	2.34	2.14	2.64	-19%
Blks/60	1.18	1.28	1.27	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 22 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.14/60 (26th pct league-wide) → 2.34 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.68/60 and 2nd-half 1.19 below the 1.28 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.18/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.27 3-yr mark.