Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3227 GP · 3y
TOI	21.21	20.72	19.42	19.63	19.71
PP TOI	3.12	3.05	3.10	3.00	3.09
G	34	28	29	27	34
A	41	38	36	40	44
PTS	75	66	65	67	78
PPP	24	23	24	22	23
SOG	225	211	215	207	226
PIM	20	29	22	36	15
Hits	52	58	55	61	44
Blocks	59	62	51	73	57

Sample: 82 GP · 1,201 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

19Sebastian Aho89

20Mitch Marner88

21Mika Zibanejad84

22Nico Hischier84

23Sidney Crosby84

24Leo Carlsson82

25Bo Horvat82

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindPositive regression from team finishing luck; raise baseline to 75-80. · Analytics research compilation

TailwindLean toward the bounce-back line; hold peripherals. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 43% below where it started (0.69 in the first half, 0.39 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 42% above where it started (2.52 in the first half, 3.57 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 21% above last season, 28 to 34.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 34% above his 3-year rate last season (2.80 against 2.10).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Bryan RustRW · Pittsburgh Penguins92% match
shared: G, Blocks, SOG, PPP
Wyatt JohnstonC,RW · Dallas Stars90% match
shared: G, PPP, Blocks, SOG
Brock NelsonC · Colorado Avalanche88% match
shared: Blocks, G, PPP, SOG
Mika ZibanejadC,RW · New York Rangers87% match
shared: PPP, Blocks, SOG, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nico Hischier is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.21	20.72	19.71	+5%
5v5 TOI	14.94	14.65	13.65	+7%
PP TOI	3.12	3.05	3.09	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.21: holds last year's role; Lean toward the bounce-back line; hold peripherals.
5v5 TOI → 14.94: holds last year's role; Lean toward the bounce-back line; hold peripherals.
PP TOI → 3.12: established top role held near 3.0 — the late dip (Q4 2.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; Set a secure PPG baseline with a strong goal floor.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.89	5.89	7.63	-23%
G/60	0.69	0.60	0.99	-39%
iSH%	11.79	10.19	12.95	-21%
ixG/60	–	0.77	0.94	-18%
iCF/60	–	12.08	13.77	-12%
iSCF/60	–	7.79	9.24	-16%
iHDCF/60	–	3.60	4.65	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindSet a secure PPG baseline with a strong goal floor. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.2% sits near the 13.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.77 (71st pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 23% (5v5 SOG/60 5.89 vs 7.63) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.42	6.13	9.52	-36%
IPP	78.14	81.08	74.54	+9%
1A/60	0.61	0.55	0.85	-35%
2A/60	0.38	0.35	0.48	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.1%, IPP 81.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.12	3.05	3.09	-1%
PP iSH%	16.12	16.19	16.07	+1%
PP SOG/60	15.92	16.31	14.38	+13%
PP ixG/60	–	3.03	2.82	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.86	1.15	0.66	+74%
Hits/60	2.47	2.80	2.10	+34%
Blks/60	2.21	2.50	2.30	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.81/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 below the 2.80 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.10 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.81/60 and 2nd-half 1.91 below the 2.50 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.21/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.30 3-yr mark.