Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H238 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3229 GP · 3y
TOI	16.91	17.05	16.13	16.42	18.05
PP TOI	2.90	3.26	3.28	3.23	3.31
G	24	24	20	29	35
A	24	31	42	19	22
PTS	48	55	62	47	57
PPP	15	19	17	20	19
SOG	156	152	139	165	225
PIM	34	37	33	42	27
Hits	82	75	78	73	110
Blocks	17	22	14	30	22

Sample: 75 GP · 933 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

83Liam O'Brien22

84Jamie Benn21

85Pavel Buchnevich20

86Chris Kreider20

87Ivan Barbashev19

88Ridly Greig19

89Jonah Gadjovich19

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP TOI trimmed 3.29->2.9 and moved out of the PP1 lock group (playoff usage down to 2:26).

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 42 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 129% above where it started (0.40 in the first half, 0.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 40% below his 3-year rate last season (8.59 against 14.31).

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 37% below his 3-year rate last season (2.15 against 3.41).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jonathan MarchessaultRW · Nashville Predators89% match
shared: Hits, G
Porter MartoneRW · Philadelphia Flyers85% match
shared: G, Hits
Jason ZuckerLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
shared: Hits, PPP
Tyler BertuzziLW,RW · Chicago Blackhawks84% match
shared: G, PPP

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Chris Kreider is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 2
fills: A, PIM
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Joel Quenneville (ANA)

Last year: Joel Quenneville full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.91	17.05	18.05	-6%
5v5 TOI	12.25	12.45	12.18	+2%
PP TOI	2.90	3.26	3.31	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.91: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.25: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.90: Off PP1 — playoff PP TOI fell to 2:26 (only a Q4 bump kept his season number up). Down from the engine's 3.29; no longer a PP1 lock, sits in the PP1/PP2 mix.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.42	5.59	7.59	-26%
G/60	0.57	0.51	0.88	-42%
iSH%	10.55	9.12	11.58	-21%
ixG/60	–	0.80	0.85	-6%
iCF/60	–	12.60	14.00	-10%
iSCF/60	–	7.97	8.35	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	4.69	4.75	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.1% sits near the 11.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.80 (76th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 5.59 vs 7.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.54	9.66	9.18	+5%
IPP	51.16	50.00	54.67	-9%
1A/60	0.50	0.64	0.35	+85%
2A/60	0.32	0.39	0.30	+30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 50.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.90	3.26	3.31	-2%
PP iSH%	18.82	22.82	17.70	+29%
PP SOG/60	9.92	8.59	14.31	-40%
PP ixG/60	–	2.15	3.41	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.3→2.9 PP TOI/gp (Off PP1 — playoff PP TOI fell to 2:26 (only a Q4 bump kept his season number up). Down from the engine's 3.29; no longer a PP1 lock, sits in the PP1/PP2 mix.) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (22.8% vs 17.7% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 2.15) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.53	1.54	1.16	+33%
Hits/60	4.73	4.31	6.07	-29%
Blks/60	0.74	0.96	1.08	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 20 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.26/60 and 2nd-half 4.51 vs a 4.31 season rate (6.07 3-yr) (53rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.73/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.51 below the 0.96 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.74/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.08 3-yr mark.