Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2678 GP	H238 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	21.09	21.50	20.99	19.80	18.27
PP TOI	4.03	4.09	3.88	4.29	2.94
G	34	40	41	39	27
A	▲64	65	59	71	44
PTS	▲98	105	100	110	71
PPP	▲34	25	32	18	26
SOG	238	217	241	193	229
PIM	26	31	19	43	31
Hits	88	89	97	82	68
Blocks	28	27	28	27	25

Sample: 78 GP · 1,268 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

4Tom Wilson133

5Matt Boldy130

6Mikko Rantanen126

7Martin Necas123

8Tage Thompson121

9Wyatt Johnston118

10Jake Guentzel117

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP-led bump. The power play, not even strength, is where his 2025-26 broke: 24 PPP on career-high PP minutes after 37 the year before. PPP 28 -> 32 (rate hedged 60/40 back toward his 2024-25 level), assists 58 -> 62. His 5v5 rate really did decline through the season, so that fade is left largely intact. Lands at 96 points, below both external reads.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold an elevated top-line/PP scoring line. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 128% above his 3-year rate last season (18.61 against 8.16).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 32 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 79% above where it started (1.28 in the first half, 2.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 39% above his 3-year rate last season (4.09 against 2.94).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Sebastian AhoC · Carolina Hurricanes89% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Drake BathersonLW,RW · Ottawa Senators86% match
shared: PPP, A, G, SOG
Connor McDavidC · Edmonton Oilers84% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jason RobertsonLW · Dallas Stars83% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Martin Necas is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year: Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.09	21.50	18.27	+18%
5v5 TOI	16.42	16.27	13.99	+16%
PP TOI	4.03	4.09	2.94	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.09: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.42: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 4.03: established top role held near 4.1 — the late dip (Q4 3.9) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.34	6.34	8.41	-25%
G/60	0.85	1.18	0.69	+72%
iSH%	12.55	18.61	8.16	+128%
ixG/60	–	0.70	0.79	-11%
iCF/60	–	13.29	16.30	-18%
iSCF/60	–	7.61	8.29	-8%
iHDCF/60	–	2.88	3.20	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 18.6% vs a 8.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.70 (61st pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 12.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 6.34 vs 8.41) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.56	12.43	8.55	+45%
IPP	66.51	67.61	64.58	+5%
1A/60	0.93	0.99	0.83	+20%
2A/60	0.51	0.71	0.36	+97%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.4% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	4.03	4.09	2.94	+39%
PP iSH%	18.40	14.98	20.87	-28%
PP SOG/60	11.71	11.28	11.93	-5%
PP ixG/60	–	1.78	1.20	+49%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPositive PPP regression for MacKinnon/Necas on a system fix. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

ContextPP role steady at ~4.0 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (15.0% vs 20.9%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.91	1.13	1.51	-25%
Hits/60	3.61	3.74	3.42	+9%
Blks/60	1.08	1.09	1.14	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.74/60 (46th pct league-wide) → 3.61 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.56/60 and 2nd-half 1.11 below the 1.09 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.14 3-yr mark.