Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H237 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3236 GP · 3y
TOI	18.86	18.88	17.63	17.65	18.05
PP TOI	3.09	3.13	2.96	3.32	2.77
G	35	37	36	38	27
A	37	39	47	31	33
PTS	72	76	83	69	60
PPP	22	24	40	7	15
SOG	239	259	249	270	198
PIM	29	27	40	12	15
Hits	81	94	84	104	97
Blocks	44	31	29	33	50

Sample: 71 GP · 918 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

18William Nylander93

19Timo Meier92

20Mitch Marner88

21Seth Jarvis87

22Mika Zibanejad84

23Alex Tuch84

24Travis Konecny81

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 40 pace in the second half after 7 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 47 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 42% above last season, 31 to 44.

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 29% above his 3-year rate last season (9.34 against 7.22).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Bo HorvatC · New York Islanders85% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, Blocks
Valeri NichushkinLW,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets85% match
shared: G, SOG, A
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguins85% match
shared: G, SOG, Hits, Blocks
Dylan GuentherRW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Seth Jarvis is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Curtis DouglasC,RW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rod Brind'Amour (CAR)

Last year: Rod Brind'Amour full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.86	18.88	18.05	+5%
5v5 TOI	12.90	12.93	13.13	-2%
PP TOI	3.09	3.13	2.77	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 21 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.86: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.90: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.09: established top role held near 3.1 — the late dip (Q4 2.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	9.34	9.34	7.22	+29%
G/60	1.07	1.11	0.78	+43%
iSH%	11.46	11.88	10.78	+10%
ixG/60	–	1.09	0.93	+17%
iCF/60	–	16.14	13.74	+17%
iSCF/60	–	10.85	9.00	+21%
iHDCF/60	–	5.03	4.82	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 21 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskApply a games-played/availability haircut for an early-season absence; per-82 rate unchanged. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 1.09 (98th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.93 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 29% (5v5 SOG/60 9.34 vs 7.22) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.26	8.02	8.64	-7%
IPP	67.14	68.98	64.20	+7%
1A/60	0.47	0.33	0.60	-45%
2A/60	0.45	0.46	0.43	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 21 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 69.0%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 16.14 vs 13.74) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.09	3.13	2.77	+13%
PP iSH%	14.78	10.42	16.00	-35%
PP SOG/60	12.66	12.95	11.48	+13%
PP ixG/60	–	2.22	2.39	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 21 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (10.4% vs 16.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.50	1.11	0.50	+120%
Hits/60	4.28	4.97	4.80	+4%
Blks/60	1.50	1.18	1.97	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 14 · 21 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.78/60 and 2nd-half 4.18 below the 4.97 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.28/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.80 3-yr mark.

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (7th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.