Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3237 GP · 3y
TOI	21.12	21.50	20.81	19.44	20.37
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.18	3.14	3.20
G	36	36	29	43	37
A	56	67	72	61	42
PTS	92	103	102	104	79
PPP	21	22	25	18	22
SOG	174	175	170	180	187
PIM	57	43	47	38	56
Hits	43	32	31	33	64
Blocks	48	47	55	39	46

Sample: 82 GP · 1,367 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

14J.T. Miller102

15Adam Fantilli102

16Tim Stützle100

17Mark Scheifele94

18Vincent Trocheck91

19Sebastian Aho89

20Mitch Marner88

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 60% above his 3-year rate last season (1.19 against 0.74).

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 25 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 55% below his 3-year rate last season (1.23 against 2.72).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 55 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jake GuentzelLW,RW · Tampa Bay Lightning83% match
shared: A, G, PPP, Blocks
Mikko RantanenRW · Dallas Stars82% match
shared: A, G, PPP, PIM
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguins82% match
shared: A, PPP, PIM
Roope HintzC · Dallas Stars82% match
shared: A, PPP, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mark Scheifele is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year: Scott Arniel full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.12	21.50	20.37	+6%
5v5 TOI	16.69	16.67	16.02	+4%
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.20	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.12: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.69: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.13: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.60	4.74	5.50	-14%
G/60	0.95	1.10	0.90	+22%
iSH%	20.61	23.21	16.37	+42%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.71	+1%
iCF/60	–	9.83	10.19	-4%
iSCF/60	–	7.59	7.35	+3%
iHDCF/60	–	3.38	3.75	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 23.2% vs a 16.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 20.6% pulls the goal rate ~14% down.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 4.74 vs 5.50) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.80 (1st half) to 0.64 (2nd).

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.94	12.96	9.86	+32%
IPP	77.92	82.13	69.36	+18%
1A/60	1.04	1.19	0.74	+60%
2A/60	0.43	0.57	0.36	+58%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 13.0% (3-yr 9.9%) AND IPP 82.1% (3-yr 69.4%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~7%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.13	3.16	3.20	-1%
PP iSH%	19.80	17.07	20.57	-17%
PP SOG/60	9.91	9.49	11.16	-15%
PP ixG/60	–	1.33	1.89	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskApply a mild cap to star ceilings under spread-the-wealth usage. · Fantasy coaching primer

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.49	1.10	1.91	-43%
Hits/60	1.66	1.23	2.72	-55%
Blks/60	1.90	1.89	1.83	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (11th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.08/60 and 2nd-half 2.14 vs a 1.89 season rate (1.83 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.