Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3240 GP · 3y
TOI	19.24	19.31	17.77	17.89	18.95
PP TOI	3.20	3.08	2.79	3.38	2.92
G	36	36	45	28	35
A	41	37	37	38	38
PTS	77	74	82	66	73
PPP	19	12	12	12	22
SOG	240	229	220	237	250
PIM	56	59	60	57	56
Hits	▲120	128	89	169	113
Blocks	33	40	25	54	35

Sample: 81 GP · 1,150 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

10Jake Guentzel117

11Sam Reinhart113

12Andrei Svechnikov113

13Adrian Kempe106

14Juraj Slafkovsky104

15Cutter Gauthier104

16J.T. Miller102

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits set to 120. He hit at 4.9 per 60 last season, his highest mark in 4 years, and his per-82 band across 2022-26 runs 100 to 129. The engine lands at 106, below that band, because the base rate averages in a softer 2024-25. 120 sits between last season's 129 and the multi-year middle, and matches the external 123. Power-play time set to 3.20, a career high across the 4 seasons on file, where his previous best is 3.11 and the engine projected 3.05. With Kopitar and Kuzmenko gone he's the only returning lock on the top unit, and he already ran 3.63 through the first quarter of last season, so the room is there.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 58% above last season, 12 to 19.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 45 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 64% below where it started (2.49 in the first half, 0.89 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brad MarchandLW,RW · Florida Panthers87% match
shared: G, SOG, PIM, A
Travis KonecnyRW · Philadelphia Flyers86% match
shared: PIM, A, SOG, G
John TavaresC · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: SOG, G, A, Hits
Sam BennettC · Florida Panthers85% match
shared: SOG, PIM, Hits, G

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adrian Kempe is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Adam KlapkaRW · Calgary Flamescovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.24	19.31	18.95	+2%
5v5 TOI	14.16	14.21	13.45	+6%
PP TOI	3.20	3.08	2.92	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.24: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.16: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.20: career-high PP role: Kopitar and Kuzmenko vacate the top unit and Kempe is the one returning lock on it

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.24	8.24	9.03	-9%
G/60	1.14	1.30	1.12	+16%
iSH%	13.79	15.78	12.36	+28%
ixG/60	–	0.73	0.77	-5%
iCF/60	–	17.52	17.72	-1%
iSCF/60	–	8.03	8.57	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	2.82	3.11	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 15.8% vs a 12.4% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.73 (65th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 13.8% pulls the goal rate ~13% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.58→0.86 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.21	10.47	9.87	+6%
IPP	74.99	81.88	70.11	+17%
1A/60	0.66	0.63	0.61	+2%
2A/60	0.37	0.42	0.34	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 81.9% vs 70.1% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.20	3.08	2.92	+5%
PP iSH%	13.58	9.07	14.85	-39%
PP SOG/60	10.43	10.58	13.26	-20%
PP ixG/60	–	1.30	1.73	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindApply a positive team-offense tailwind to LA's skill players and PP. · Coaching landscape report

ContextPP role steady at ~3.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.18	2.09	2.44	-14%
Hits/60	5.06	6.15	5.35	+15%
Blks/60	1.24	1.67	1.44	+16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.70/60 and 2nd-half 4.03 below the 6.15 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.06/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.35 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.44/60 and 2nd-half 0.89 below the 1.67 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.44 3-yr mark.