Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H241 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3157 GP · 2y
TOI	22.95	23.06	22.02	21.60	22.19
PP TOI	1.00	1.65	1.81	1.43	1.81
G	13	7	6	8	16
A	31	35	34	38	35
PTS	44	42	40	45	51
PPP	6	8	8	8	13
SOG	146	132	152	104	165
PIM	23	31	33	27	18
Hits	47	46	48	43	53
Blocks	139	173	174	172	128

Sample: 70 GP · 1,317 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

51Jake Walman30

52K'Andre Miller30

53Luke Hughes27

54Thomas Harley26

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

57Logan Stanley25

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Heiskanen reanchored the Dallas PP1; Harley slides to a secondary PP role. Bet placed on PP minutes rather than a blind PPP/A multiplier.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 82% below where it started (7.22 in the first half, 1.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 39% below last season, 1.65 to 1.00.

Second-half surge

SOG/60

SOG/60 finished the year 53% above where it started (3.22 in the first half, 4.92 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 25% below last season, 8 to 6.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brock FaberD · Minnesota Wild91% match
shared: G, Blocks, A, SOG
Jackson LaCombeD · Anaheim Ducks90% match
shared: G, A, Blocks, PPP
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators89% match
shared: Blocks, A, G, SOG
Morgan RiellyD · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Thomas Harley is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.95	23.06	22.19	+4%
5v5 TOI	18.53	18.82	18.14	+4%
PP TOI	1.00	1.65	1.81	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 11 · 22 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.95: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.53: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.00: lost PP1 time to a healthy Heiskanen (1.65 -> ~1.0 PP TOI); fewer PP setups and the PPP drop both fall out of the minutes

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.26	4.19	5.25	-20%
G/60	0.19	0.14	0.44	-68%
iSH%	6.87	3.34	8.39	-60%
ixG/60	–	0.22	0.27	-17%
iCF/60	–	10.71	12.94	-17%
iSCF/60	–	2.96	4.07	-27%
iHDCF/60	–	0.23	0.50	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 11 · 22 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 3.3% sits near the 8.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.22 (24th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 20% (5v5 SOG/60 4.19 vs 5.25) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.30 (1st half) to 0.18 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.11	9.96	10.55	-6%
IPP	42.48	43.43	39.59	+10%
1A/60	0.39	0.46	0.31	+46%
2A/60	0.50	0.50	0.52	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 11 · 22 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 43.4%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.00	1.65	1.81	-9%
PP iSH%	7.76	11.13	5.12	+118%
PP SOG/60	5.38	4.67	8.22	-43%
PP ixG/60	–	0.73	0.54	+36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 11 · 22 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskTrim Harley PPP toward a PP2 share; hold Heiskanen as the safe PP1 quarterback. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.7→1.0 PP TOI/gp (lost PP1 time to a healthy Heiskanen (1.65 -> ~1.0 PP TOI); fewer PP setups and the PPP drop both fall out of the minutes) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.73 vs 0.54) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.94	1.00	0.55	+82%
Hits/60	1.68	1.59	1.92	-17%
Blks/60	5.04	5.42	4.47	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 11 · 22 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.05/60 and 2nd-half 1.57 below the 1.59 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.68/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.92 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (96th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.04/60 projected).