Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2653 GP	H236 GP	H117 GP	Prev 3191 GP · 3y
TOI	19.19	18.75	17.79	19.09	20.77
PP TOI	0.83	0.71	0.74	0.64	1.35
G	12	12	12	13	12
A	22	18	13	30	22
PTS	34	31	25	43	34
PPP	4	3	2	5	6
SOG	161	149	165	114	177
PIM	42	15	7	32	56
Hits	40	23	18	34	62
Blocks	153	139	136	146	175

Sample: 53 GP · 875 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

48Alexander Romanov31

49Justin Faulk30

50Kaiden Guhle30

51Jake Walman30

52K'Andre Miller30

53Luke Hughes27

54Thomas Harley26

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 30 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 7 pace in the second half after 32 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 48% below his 3-year rate last season (0.71 against 1.35).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 59% below his 3-year rate last season (1.03 against 2.51).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators86% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, G
Mike MathesonD · Montreal Canadiens85% match
shared: Blocks, G
Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings84% match
shared: SOG, Blocks, G
Rasmus AnderssonD · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
shared: Blocks, SOG, G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jake Walman is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Shayne GostisbehereD · Carolina Hurricanescovers 2
fills: PPP, A
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Filip HronekD · Vancouver Canuckscovers 3
fills: A, Hits, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.19	18.75	20.77	-10%
5v5 TOI	16.45	16.52	16.18	+2%
PP TOI	0.83	0.71	1.35	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 18 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.19: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.45: established top role held near 16.5 — the late dip (Q4 15.2) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.83: role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.82	5.76	6.43	-10%
G/60	0.39	0.34	0.45	-24%
iSH%	6.63	5.90	6.94	-15%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.25	-8%
iCF/60	–	12.61	14.10	-11%
iSCF/60	–	2.47	3.09	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	0.41	0.39	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 18 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.9% sits near the 6.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (26th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 10% (5v5 SOG/60 5.76 vs 6.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.15→0.27 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.05	8.85	9.74	-9%
IPP	39.65	41.70	34.86	+20%
1A/60	0.36	0.41	0.22	+91%
2A/60	0.39	0.27	0.33	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 18 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 41.7% vs 34.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.83	0.71	1.35	-48%
PP iSH%	7.88	14.26	2.87	+398%
PP SOG/60	10.67	11.22	8.17	+37%
PP ixG/60	–	1.31	0.99	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 18 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.7→0.8 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.6 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.31 vs 0.99) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.74	0.55	2.16	-74%
Hits/60	1.39	1.03	2.51	-59%
Blks/60	5.83	5.69	6.04	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 0 · 18 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskBottom-of-league hits (7th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.

TailwindElite blocks volume (98th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.83/60 projected).