Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H240 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3210 GP · 3y
TOI	24.35	24.16	22.43	22.96	25.12
PP TOI	0.42	0.29	0.30	0.29	2.92
G	7	7	6	9	10
A	27	32	34	29	40
PTS	34	39	40	38	50
PPP	2	1	2	0	19
SOG	129	120	132	107	180
PIM	43	36	31	41	56
Hits	71	62	76	47	68
Blocks	160	158	149	167	164

Sample: 78 GP · 1,438 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

53Luke Hughes27

54Thomas Harley26

55Connor Clifton26

56Mike Matheson26

57Logan Stanley25

58Shea Theodore25

59Kris Letang23

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 90% below his 3-year rate last season (0.29 against 2.92).

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 76 pace in the second half after 47 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 56% below where it started (6.88 in the first half, 3.05 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (24.16).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings87% match
shared: Blocks, G
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators85% match
shared: Blocks, A, G
Jake WalmanD · Edmonton Oilers85% match
shared: Blocks, G
Brandt ClarkeD · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Blocks, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mike Matheson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, Hits
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: SOG, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.35	24.16	25.12	-4%
5v5 TOI	18.36	18.45	17.77	+4%
PP TOI	0.42	0.29	2.92	-90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.35: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.36: established top role held near 18.4 — the late dip (Q4 17.8) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.42: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.9

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.05	4.13	4.95	-17%
G/60	0.18	0.21	0.21	+1%
iSH%	4.47	5.08	4.20	+21%
ixG/60	–	0.18	0.21	-15%
iCF/60	–	9.80	11.27	-13%
iSCF/60	–	2.79	2.75	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	0.50	0.60	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.1% vs a 4.2% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.18 (18th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.5% pulls the goal rate ~14% down.

RiskShot volume down 17% (5v5 SOG/60 4.13 vs 4.95) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.21 (1st half) to 0.15 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.16	10.09	8.53	+18%
IPP	43.35	46.01	40.08	+15%
1A/60	0.40	0.42	0.42	+0%
2A/60	0.36	0.58	0.29	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.1% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.58 vs 3-yr 0.29) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.42	0.29	2.92	-90%
PP iSH%	4.56	0.00	6.00	-100%
PP SOG/60	3.32	2.63	9.79	-73%
PP ixG/60	–	0.57	0.75	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.4 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 2.9) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.23	1.17	1.48	-21%
Hits/60	2.41	2.04	2.47	-18%
Blks/60	4.30	4.09	4.61	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.20/60 and 2nd-half 2.67 vs a 2.04 season rate (2.47 3-yr) (24th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.41/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 4.09/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 4.30 projected.