Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 378 GP · 1y
TOI	20.05	19.80	19.75	17.64	16.28
PP TOI	3.02	2.29	2.70	1.86	1.78
G	8	8	4	12	5
A	▲46	32	35	29	29
PTS	▲54	40	39	41	35
PPP	19	13	18	8	9
SOG	173	159	152	167	138
PIM	71	63	76	49	48
Hits	25	31	19	44	23
Blocks	▼185	185	228	140	127

Sample: 82 GP · 1,345 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

11Darren Raddysh94

12Jake Sanderson93

13Mikhail Sergachev92

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Dialed back from the first pass (G/A x1.35, PPP x1.55), which double-counted growth the engine already bakes in (it projects PPP 13->16 and lifts his climbing PP role on its own) and rocketed him to 7th among D on a speculative PP1 role (claim conf 0.55, Doughty still ahead). The sources' 60 pts is a ceiling rather than a base. This keeps only a modest forward-looking credit for the Laviolette attack system. Revisit up if PP1 is confirmed at camp. The 2026-27 depth chart has Clarke in the power-play mix rather than locked onto the top unit, so the revisit trigger hasn't fired. Blocks set to 185, down from a projected 203. His 5v5 block rate has climbed every year, 6.36 to 6.05 to 7.58 per 60, and 203 would clear his career high of 184, but our own out-of-sample testing says block trends continue only about 27% of the time. 185 holds the elite floor his value rests on without extrapolating the climb.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 8 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 44% above last season, 32 to 46.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 35% above last season, 40 to 54.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mike MathesonD · Montreal Canadiens85% match
shared: Blocks, A
Hampus LindholmD · Boston Bruins83% match
shared: PIM, Blocks
Sean DurziD · New York Rangers83% match
shared: PIM
Rasmus AnderssonD · Vegas Golden Knights82% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brandt Clarke is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, Hits
Seth JonesD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PPP, Hits
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: PPP, SOG
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.05	19.80	16.28	+22%
5v5 TOI	16.83	16.40	13.98	+17%
PP TOI	3.02	2.29	1.78	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.05: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 16.83: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.02: credits the H2 PP role the engine discounts under a new coach (bet on the minutes); NOT a confirmed elite PP1 leap

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.21	5.17	5.83	-11%
G/60	0.16	0.18	0.17	+6%
iSH%	3.09	3.48	2.92	+19%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.25	-8%
iCF/60	–	11.15	12.44	-10%
iSCF/60	–	3.26	2.53	+29%
iHDCF/60	–	0.49	0.66	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 3.5% vs a 2.9% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (27th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 3.1% pulls the goal rate ~11% down.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 5.17 vs 5.83) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.80	9.59	10.28	-7%
IPP	38.41	38.62	37.93	+2%
1A/60	0.72	0.80	0.61	+31%
2A/60	0.33	0.13	0.44	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 38.6%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.02	2.29	1.78	+29%
PP iSH%	8.11	6.26	9.56	-35%
PP SOG/60	10.23	10.23	9.10	+12%
PP ixG/60	–	0.94	0.78	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindApply a positive team-offense tailwind to LA's skill players and PP. · Coaching landscape report

TailwindBoost Clarke toward a PP1 offensive-defenseman line with strong blocks. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

TailwindPP role projected up: 2.3→3.0 PP TOI/gp (credits the H2 PP role the engine discounts under a new coach (bet on the minutes); NOT a confirmed elite PP1 leap) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.94 vs 0.78) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.97	2.63	2.53	+4%
Hits/60	0.96	1.25	1.10	+14%
Blks/60	8.12	7.58	6.05	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindRaise both the block floor and the point/TOI baseline. · Fantasy deep-dive analysis

TailwindBoost Clarke toward a PP1 offensive-defenseman line with strong blocks. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.54/60 and 2nd-half 0.66 below the 1.25 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.96/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.10 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 10.50/60 and 2nd-half 9.08 vs a 7.58 season rate (6.05 3-yr) (100th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 8.12/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.63/60 (77th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.