Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2667 GP	H233 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3153 GP · 2y
TOI	21.96	21.62	20.00	20.66	23.23
PP TOI	1.37	1.42	1.03	1.81	1.95
G	6	6	5	7	7
A	▼23	26	27	24	35
PTS	▼29	32	33	32	42
PPP	7	5	0	10	12
SOG	121	122	104	140	138
PIM	62	71	67	75	64
Hits	23	15	21	9	68
Blocks	▲126	126	116	136	100

Sample: 67 GP · 1,085 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

78Hampus Lindholm12

79Connor Murphy12

80Simon Nemec11

81Arber Xhekaj10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Points trimmed and blocks raised — two independent corrections in opposite directions. The engine had him 6 points above both outside reads on offence while understating the blocks that are his actual fantasy value.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 101% above where it started (3.36 in the first half, 6.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 41% below where it started (1.80 in the first half, 1.05 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 52% above his 3-year rate last season (11.33 against 7.44).

Above his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 38% above his 3-year rate last season (4.26 against 3.08).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Sean DurziD · New York Rangers87% match
shared: PIM
Brandt ClarkeD · Los Angeles Kings83% match
shared: PIM, Blocks
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers82% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames78% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Hampus Lindholm is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.96	21.62	23.23	-7%
5v5 TOI	16.52	16.19	17.55	-8%
PP TOI	1.37	1.42	1.95	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 20 · 15 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.96: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.52: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.37: role tapered late (Q4 0.8 vs 1.4 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.76	3.98	4.29	-7%
G/60	0.16	0.22	0.16	+39%
iSH%	4.24	5.53	3.68	+50%
ixG/60	–	0.17	0.21	-18%
iCF/60	–	10.12	9.25	+9%
iSCF/60	–	2.99	3.22	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.39	0.69	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 20 · 15 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 5.5% vs a 3.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.17 (18th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 4.2% pulls the goal rate ~27% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.15→0.19 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.77	9.96	9.21	+8%
IPP	39.66	42.69	34.01	+26%
1A/60	0.43	0.50	0.38	+32%
2A/60	0.43	0.39	0.44	-12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 20 · 15 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 42.7% vs 34.0% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.12 vs 9.25) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.37	1.42	1.95	-27%
PP iSH%	5.48	5.56	5.42	+3%
PP SOG/60	10.36	11.33	7.44	+52%
PP ixG/60	–	0.89	0.50	+76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 20 · 15 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.89 vs 0.50) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.81	2.10	1.68	+25%
Hits/60	0.68	0.50	2.37	-79%
Blks/60	3.77	4.26	3.08	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 20 · 15 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 0.61/60 and 2nd-half 0.80 vs a 0.50 season rate (2.37 3-yr) (2nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 0.68/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.26/60 and 2nd-half 3.86 below the 4.26 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.08 3-yr mark.