Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2675 GP	H239 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3151 GP · 2y
TOI	26.50	26.61	25.28	24.53	25.68
PP TOI	3.12	3.03	3.03	3.04	2.71
G	21	24	18	31	19
A	▲65	64	68	61	57
PTS	▲86	88	85	91	75
PPP	24	23	23	23	20
SOG	290	284	272	299	271
PIM	26	20	25	14	29
Hits	28	33	26	40	23
Blocks	▼120	103	88	119	142

Sample: 75 GP · 1,550 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

1Moritz Seider136

2Cale Makar134

3Zach Werenski126

4Quinn Hughes117

5Rasmus Dahlin113

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): NEW 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass). We were the floor of all four reads (81 vs 82/87/89) on a defenseman whose p/60 has risen 2.00 -> 2.27 -> 2.43 with no sign of being a spike, and whose PP TOI ENDED the year rising (Q4 3.63 vs 3.03 season). Our 81 implied 2.24 p/60, a fade off a career year the trend does not support. Deliberately small: assists only, held exactly AT last year's rate rather than past it, PP TOI left alone at the engine's honest 3.12. Lands ~85. Blocks corrected separately and in the opposite direction - the one place the hedge was too generous.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

ContextMild caution on Columbus star ceilings; value gated by coach trust. · Coaching landscape report

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 56% below where it started (12.74 in the first half, 5.55 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 18 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 30% above last season, 20 to 26.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 29% below his 3-year rate last season (0.50 against 0.71).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanche89% match
shared: G, SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Miro HeiskanenD · Dallas Stars86% match
shared: A, PPP, SOG, G
Roman JosiD · Nashville Predators85% match
shared: SOG, G, A, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zach Werenski is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Brenden DillonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	26.50	26.61	25.68	+4%
5v5 TOI	20.89	20.68	20.14	+3%
PP TOI	3.12	3.03	2.71	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 19 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 26.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 20.89: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.12: same coach (Rick Bowness) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.0, Q4 3.6) over the full-year 3.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.31	7.31	7.54	-3%
G/60	0.51	0.66	0.46	+45%
iSH%	6.94	9.03	6.04	+50%
ixG/60	–	0.35	0.44	-21%
iCF/60	–	17.41	15.94	+9%
iSCF/60	–	5.88	5.19	+13%
iHDCF/60	–	0.50	1.32	-62%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 19 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.0% vs a 6.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.35 (34th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 6.9% pulls the goal rate ~23% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.30→0.40 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.05	9.97	10.16	-2%
IPP	56.03	58.15	52.92	+10%
1A/60	0.59	0.50	0.71	-29%
2A/60	0.57	0.66	0.57	+16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 19 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.0%, IPP 58.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 17.41 vs 15.94) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.12	3.03	2.71	+12%
PP iSH%	9.01	8.73	9.23	-5%
PP SOG/60	11.94	12.14	11.16	+9%
PP ixG/60	–	0.99	0.79	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 19 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.99 vs 0.79) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.74	0.70	0.65	+7%
Hits/60	0.88	1.04	0.71	+46%
Blks/60	3.33	3.02	4.44	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 15 · 19 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.84/60 and 2nd-half 0.80 below the 1.04 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.88/60, weighting the recent decline over the 0.71 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.52/60 and 2nd-half 2.41 below the 3.02 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.33/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.44 3-yr mark.