Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H228 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3165 GP · 3y
TOI	11.95	11.42	10.96	11.62	15.17
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.53
G	2	1	0	2	5
A	6	4	6	2	10
PTS	8	5	6	4	14
PPP	0	0	0	0	1
SOG	63	50	42	57	102
PIM	124	146	132	157	149
Hits	215	224	258	199	231
Blocks	59	53	43	60	78

Sample: 65 GP · 715 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

78Hampus Lindholm12

79Connor Murphy12

80Simon Nemec11

81Arber Xhekaj10

82Nick Seeler10

83Gustav Forsling9

84Timothy Liljegren9

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 38% above where it started (12.57 in the first half, 17.29 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (2.45 against 3.75).

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 43 pace in the second half after 60 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Arber Xhekaj is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.95	11.42	15.17	-25%
5v5 TOI	11.39	11.01	13.86	-21%
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.53	-98%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 16 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.95: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.39: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.22	3.27	4.80	-32%
G/60	0.11	0.08	0.18	-56%
iSH%	3.36	2.45	3.75	-35%
ixG/60	–	0.12	0.16	-25%
iCF/60	–	10.32	12.07	-14%
iSCF/60	–	1.85	2.33	-21%
iHDCF/60	–	0.42	0.26	+60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 16 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.4% sits near the 3.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.12 (7th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 3.27 vs 4.80) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.14 (1st half) to 0.11 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.21	9.51	8.32	+14%
IPP	20.16	17.62	29.78	-41%
1A/60	0.21	0.17	0.34	-50%
2A/60	0.11	0.08	0.13	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 16 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 17.6% sits below the 29.8% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.42 vs 0.26) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.53	-98%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	11.12
PP SOG/60	2.47	0.00	12.37	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.81	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 16 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	8.22	9.73	7.40	+32%
Hits/60	13.76	14.68	11.57	+27%
Blks/60	3.52	3.35	3.78	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 18 · 16 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 14.09/60 and 2nd-half 17.29 vs a 14.68 season rate (11.57 3-yr) (94th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 13.76/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.35/60 (69th pct league-wide) → 3.52 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.67/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.