Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	22.65	22.63	22.27	20.80	22.85
PP TOI	0.35	0.60	0.95	0.26	0.74
G	9	2	2	2	12
A	24	27	29	25	26
PTS	33	29	31	27	38
PPP	1	2	4	0	3
SOG	162	115	132	97	192
PIM	35	52	57	47	34
Hits	69	53	50	56	89
Blocks	104	101	108	93	96

Sample: 80 GP · 1,429 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

80Simon Nemec11

81Arber Xhekaj10

82Nick Seeler10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Power-play minutes corrected down to a rate that matches the role he actually has, which is none. Everything else about his line is a 5v5 and shot-volume read and is untouched. His PP points fall from 2 to about 1, so this is a deployment-honesty fix rather than a points bet, but the card was showing him with a power-play job he does not hold.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (1.95 against 5.36).

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 41% above last season, 115 to 162.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 30% above last season, 53 to 69.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 30% below where it started (0.51 in the first half, 0.35 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Sean WalkerD · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: SOG
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers85% match
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes83% match
Justin FaulkD · Detroit Red Wings83% match
shared: SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Gustav Forsling is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.65	22.63	22.85	-1%
5v5 TOI	18.16	17.87	17.96	-0%
PP TOI	0.35	0.60	0.74	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.65: Headline ice time reconciled after the power-play trim: 19.23 at even strength, 0.35 on the power play, 3.07 on a penalty kill where he is a genuine workhorse.
5v5 TOI → 18.16: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.35: He is not a power-play defenceman. The projected 0.67 is a mirage from the H2 anchor: his 2025-26 quarters ran 0.28, 0.25, 1.35, 0.40, and that Q3 spike is Seth Jones injury cover, which the same quarter confirms with Jones at 0.00. Weighting Q3+Q4 carried the fill-in forward as if it were a standing role. 0.35 matches his actual baseline (0.30 in 2024-25, 0.28 to 0.40 in every clean quarter since), and the external read gives him no power-play time at all.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.18	4.11	6.68	-38%
G/60	0.11	0.08	0.36	-78%
iSH%	4.34	1.95	5.36	-64%
ixG/60	–	0.15	0.25	-41%
iCF/60	–	10.53	14.99	-30%
iSCF/60	–	1.89	4.02	-53%
iHDCF/60	–	0.21	0.53	-60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 1.9% sits near the 5.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.15 (13th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 38% (5v5 SOG/60 4.11 vs 6.68) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.12→0.19 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.11	9.57	8.56	+12%
IPP	38.20	37.00	39.68	-7%
1A/60	0.44	0.42	0.53	-20%
2A/60	0.37	0.50	0.29	+72%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.6%, IPP 37.0%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.50 vs 3-yr 0.29) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.35	0.60	0.74	-18%
PP iSH%	4.89	0.00	6.44	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.36	6.20	10.42	-41%
PP ixG/60	–	0.45	0.80	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.6→0.3 PP TOI/gp (He is not a power-play defenceman. The projected 0.67 is a mirage from the H2 anchor: his 2025-26 quarters ran 0.28, 0.25, 1.35, 0.40, and that Q3 spike is Seth Jones injury cover, which the same quarter confirms with Jones at 0.00. Weighting Q3+Q4 carried the fill-in forward as if it were a standing role. 0.35 matches his actual baseline (0.30 in 2024-25, 0.28 to 0.40 in every clean quarter since), and the external read gives him no power-play time at all.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.58	1.89	1.23	+53%
Hits/60	2.39	1.85	3.19	-42%
Blks/60	2.64	2.43	2.32	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 23 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.85/60 (22nd pct league-wide) → 2.39 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.62/60 and 2nd-half 2.75 vs a 2.43 season rate (2.32 3-yr) (47th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.64/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.