Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3231 GP · 3y
TOI	23.50	23.73	22.72	23.16	21.92
PP TOI	1.16	1.03	1.69	0.44	0.24
G	8	14	16	12	6
A	24	21	26	16	19
PTS	32	35	42	29	26
PPP	5	6	11	2	0
SOG	122	120	132	109	112
PIM	38	50	54	46	33
Hits	58	50	61	39	64
Blocks	120	105	81	127	131

Sample: 82 GP · 1,581 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

88Tyler Tucker8

89Owen Power8

90Carter Yakemchuk7

91Vladislav Gavrikov7

92Niko Mikkola7

93Emil Lilleberg7

94Erik Cernak7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 136% above his 3-year rate last season (10.22 against 4.33).

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 96% above his 3-year rate last season (8.48 against 4.32).

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 16 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 61 pace in the second half after 39 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames86% match
Gustav ForslingD · Florida Panthers85% match
Sean DurziD · New York Rangers84% match
Travis SanheimD · Philadelphia Flyers83% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vladislav Gavrikov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	23.50	23.73	21.92	+8%
5v5 TOI	19.12	19.29	17.86	+8%
PP TOI	1.16	1.03	0.24	+331%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 23.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 19.12: established top role held near 19.3 — the late dip (Q4 18.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 1.16: same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 1.0) over the full-year 1.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.75	3.72	4.07	-9%
G/60	0.27	0.38	0.18	+115%
iSH%	6.10	10.22	4.33	+136%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.22	-8%
iCF/60	–	10.55	8.90	+19%
iSCF/60	–	2.85	2.55	+12%
iHDCF/60	–	0.68	0.67	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.2% vs a 4.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 6.1% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.26 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.08	8.26	7.79	+6%
IPP	40.67	47.26	34.84	+36%
1A/60	0.25	0.23	0.28	-17%
2A/60	0.40	0.34	0.39	-14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 47.3% vs 34.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.55 vs 8.90) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.16	1.03	0.24	+331%
PP iSH%	11.00	25.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	7.82	8.48	4.32	+96%
PP ixG/60	–	1.36	0.27	+413%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.0→1.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.7, Q4 1.0) over the full-year 1.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.36 vs 0.27) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.50	1.67	1.25	+34%
Hits/60	1.84	1.56	2.14	-27%
Blks/60	2.93	3.11	3.86	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 21 · 19 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.79/60 and 2nd-half 2.01 vs a 1.56 season rate (2.14 3-yr) (17th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.84/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.12/60 and 2nd-half 2.27 below the 3.11 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.93/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.86 3-yr mark.