Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2650 GP	H218 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3113 GP · 2y
TOI	16.98	17.31	17.72	16.85	15.58
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.06	0.02
G	2	7	11	5	1
A	17	13	22	10	17
PTS	19	20	33	15	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	63	70	82	61	56
PIM	98	100	91	108	88
Hits	170	158	191	139	158
Blocks	81	74	65	84	79

Sample: 50 GP · 758 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

90Carter Yakemchuk7

91Vladislav Gavrikov7

92Niko Mikkola7

93Emil Lilleberg7

94Erik Cernak7

95Brady Skjei7

96Mario Ferraro6

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 113% above where it started (6.27 in the first half, 13.37 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 35% below his 3-year rate last season (0.24 against 0.37).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers97% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens92% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth92% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Emil Lilleberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.98	17.31	15.58	+11%
5v5 TOI	15.33	15.18	14.44	+5%
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.02	+105%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 3 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.98: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.33: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 16.1, Q4 16.1) over the full-year 15.2
PP TOI → 0.03: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.43	3.40	2.79	+22%
G/60	0.23	0.32	0.04	+699%
iSH%	5.42	9.41	1.43	+556%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.12	+62%
iCF/60	–	7.67	8.79	-13%
iSCF/60	–	1.66	1.84	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	0.47	0.22	+113%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 3 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.12 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 22% (5v5 SOG/60 3.40 vs 2.79) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.16→0.26 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.90	12.02	8.62	+39%
IPP	31.06	29.32	37.62	-22%
1A/60	0.31	0.24	0.37	-35%
2A/60	0.40	0.40	0.37	+9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 3 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.0% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.47 vs 0.22) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.05	0.02	+105%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 3 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	4.48	4.66	4.37	+7%
Hits/60	7.06	6.56	7.58	-13%
Blks/60	3.08	3.08	3.31	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 12 · 3 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.72/60 and 2nd-half 7.72 vs a 6.56 season rate (7.58 3-yr) (73rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.06/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.49/60 and 2nd-half 2.49 below the 3.08 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.31 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.24/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.