Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2642 GP	H230 GP	H112 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	15.53	15.10	15.54	14.41	–
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	0.02	–	–
G	0	0	0	0	–
A	17	16	17	18	–
PTS	17	16	17	18	–
PPP	0	0	0	–	–
SOG	70	64	66	70	–
PIM	138	133	147	109	–
Hits	158	150	162	104	–
Blocks	64	63	54	108	–

Sample: 42 GP · 597 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

66Maveric Lamoureux19

67Dmitry Orlov18

68Tony DeAngelo17

69Donovan Sebrango17

70Brayden McNabb16

71Artyom Levshunov16

72Braden Schneider15

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 162 pace in the second half after 104 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 54 pace in the second half after 108 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (0.11).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars88% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Donovan Sebrango is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jake SandersonD · Ottawa Senatorscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year (OTT, traded): Paul Maurice FLA · pre-trade → Travis Green OTT · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	15.53	15.10	n/a
5v5 TOI	14.95	14.23	n/a
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 3 · 12 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.53: one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 14.95: same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.2, Q4 17.0) over the full-year 14.2; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.02: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.01	3.01	n/a
G/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.11	n/a
iCF/60	–	9.44	n/a
iSCF/60	–	1.51	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.10	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 3 · 12 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.08→0.13 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 24 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +4% and role +3% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	11.63	11.63	n/a
IPP	29.52	29.52	n/a
1A/60	0.50	0.50	n/a
2A/60	0.30	0.30	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 3 · 12 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.6%, IPP 29.5%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 3 · 12 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	6.90	6.83	n/a
Hits/60	7.53	7.53	n/a
Blks/60	2.75	2.81	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 3 · 12 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.53/60 (78th pct league-wide) → 7.53 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.36/60 and 2nd-half 2.27 below the 2.81 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.75/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.40/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.