Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2663 GP	H225 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3246 GP · 3y
TOI	20.21	20.52	19.30	20.18	19.77
PP TOI	0.07	0.09	0.07	0.10	0.04
G	5	6	8	6	3
A	14	9	18	3	18
PTS	19	15	25	9	21
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	101	105	155	73	91
PIM	32	34	29	37	37
Hits	151	143	145	142	160
Blocks	173	186	149	211	183

Sample: 63 GP · 1,090 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

67Dmitry Orlov18

68Tony DeAngelo17

69Donovan Sebrango17

70Brayden McNabb16

71Artyom Levshunov16

72Braden Schneider15

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 54% below where it started (6.17 in the first half, 2.84 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 finished the year 68% above where it started (2.25 in the first half, 3.79 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 24% below his 3-year rate last season (4.51 against 5.90).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Alexander RomanovD · New York Islanders89% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brayden McNabb is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.21	20.52	19.77	+4%
5v5 TOI	17.19	17.31	17.09	+1%
PP TOI	0.07	0.09	0.04	+140%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.21: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.19: established top role held near 17.3 — the late dip (Q4 16.6) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.07: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.22	4.07	3.73	+9%
G/60	0.19	0.22	0.13	+70%
iSH%	4.44	5.41	3.48	+55%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.16	+22%
iCF/60	–	10.56	9.33	+13%
iSCF/60	–	2.97	2.51	+18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.28	0.31	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.16 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.16→0.28 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 35 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.73	8.39	9.23	-9%
IPP	24.29	22.73	26.60	-15%
1A/60	0.22	0.17	0.29	-41%
2A/60	0.24	0.17	0.30	-43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.4%, IPP 22.7%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.56 vs 9.33) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.09	0.04	+140%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	7.51	11.15	6.86	+63%
PP ixG/60	–	3.07	0.26	+1101%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.07 vs 0.26) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.24	1.32	1.36	-3%
Hits/60	4.81	4.51	5.90	-24%
Blks/60	5.47	5.89	5.71	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 7 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.51/60 (55th pct league-wide) → 4.81 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 4.22/60 and 2nd-half 4.58 below the 5.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 5.47/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.71 3-yr mark.