Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2644 GP	H235 GP	H19 GP	Prev 3168 GP · 3y
TOI	20.77	21.39	20.66	19.51	19.16
PP TOI	1.30	1.33	1.62	0.21	0.86
G	4	2	2	2	4
A	19	24	29	6	17
PTS	23	26	31	7	21
PPP	4	2	2	0	4
SOG	122	108	104	122	113
PIM	29	30	26	44	26
Hits	142	89	85	108	154
Blocks	134	117	110	144	130

Sample: 44 GP · 766 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

70Brayden McNabb16

71Artyom Levshunov16

72Braden Schneider15

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

74Adam Larsson14

75Lian Bichsel14

76Brenden Dillon13

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 60% above last season, 89 to 142.

Above his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 55% above his 3-year rate last season (1.33 against 0.86).

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 62% below where it started (32.43 in the first half, 12.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 44 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres85% match
shared: Hits
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers84% match
shared: Hits
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals82% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers81% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Rasmus Ristolainen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.77	21.39	19.16	+12%
5v5 TOI	16.96	17.42	15.78	+10%
PP TOI	1.30	1.33	0.86	+55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 9 · 16 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.96: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.30: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.6, Q4 2.2) over the full-year 1.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.29	3.29	4.43	-26%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.09	-100%
iSH%	0.99	0.00	1.97	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.21	0.18	+15%
iCF/60	–	8.61	8.66	-1%
iSCF/60	–	2.82	1.90	+48%
iHDCF/60	–	0.94	0.45	+108%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 9 · 16 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 0.0% vs 2.0% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.21 (23rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 1.0%, lifting the goal rate ~0%.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 3.29 vs 4.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.15→0.23 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.91	10.38	7.75	+34%
IPP	28.56	28.81	27.00	+7%
1A/60	0.25	0.31	0.18	+72%
2A/60	0.37	0.39	0.34	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 9 · 16 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.4% vs a 7.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.94 vs 0.45) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.30	1.33	0.86	+55%
PP iSH%	5.44	0.00	7.16	-100%
PP SOG/60	10.07	9.22	5.83	+58%
PP ixG/60	–	0.69	0.83	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 9 · 16 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.84	0.78	1.17	-34%
Hits/60	4.51	3.37	6.22	-46%
Blks/60	4.00	3.68	4.48	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 9 · 16 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.37/60 (43rd pct league-wide) → 4.51 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.68/60 (74th pct league-wide) → 4.00 projected.