Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2668 GP	H229 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	20.96	19.59	19.97	17.54	–
PP TOI	2.10	2.72	3.03	2.49	–
G	▲5	2	-0	4	–
A	23	27	14	36	–
PTS	▲28	29	14	40	–
PPP	6	13	3	21	–
SOG	117	101	104	99	–
PIM	48	53	56	51	–
Hits	▼131	118	160	87	–
Blocks	102	88	100	79	–

Sample: 68 GP · 1,040 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

68Tony DeAngelo17

69Donovan Sebrango17

70Brayden McNabb16

71Artyom Levshunov16

72Braden Schneider15

73Rasmus Ristolainen14

74Adam Larsson14

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Talented young PP D whose earned H2 PP1-QB minutes (3.04) get bumped down to PP2 (2.1) by Byram's arrival + contract. Still a real PP contributor; the two split the QB minutes with Byram on top. Hits tempered off the H2 bump (160 -> ~130), still an elite-physical rate. Goals lifted off a 1.5% EV shooting year back toward his ~5 xG (still landing under it). Camp battle to watch: he and Rinzel are projected nearly level on PP TOI (2.10 vs 2.08) and whoever wins PP2 plus the Byram pairing swings roughly 10 points - the even split is a deliberate hedge, not a read.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 3 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 160 pace in the second half after 87 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 23% below last season, 2.72 to 2.10.

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 16% above last season, 101 to 117.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators88% match
shared: PPP, PIM
Dmitry OrlovD · San Jose Sharks86% match
shared: PPP
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs86% match
shared: PIM
Aaron EkbladD · Florida Panthers84% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Artyom Levshunov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year: Jeff Blashill full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	20.96	19.59	n/a
5v5 TOI	17.40	15.30	n/a
PP TOI	2.10	2.72	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 19 · 10

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.96: one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 17.40: same coach (Jeff Blashill) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 16.6, Q4 17.2) over the full-year 15.3; one NHL season — role grown +7% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 2.10: cedes PP1 QB to the newly-extended Byram - his 3.04 was the PP1-QB role he earned by H2 as a rookie (Q2-Q4 ~3.0), but Byram's contract makes Byram the guy. Drops to a PP2-QB role, hedged (not cratered - he keeps real PP2 minutes and some PP1 spillover).

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	3.63	3.52	n/a
G/60	0.06	0.06	n/a
iSH%	1.70	1.70	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.16	n/a
iCF/60	–	9.34	n/a
iSCF/60	–	2.71	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 19 · 10

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 20 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 20 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +10% and role +7% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.01	8.01	n/a
IPP	32.14	32.14	n/a
1A/60	0.29	0.29	n/a
2A/60	0.29	0.29	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 19 · 10

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskFADE Rinzel's 2026-27 PP/offense expectation; Levshunov owns the PP-QB role, so cap Rinzel's PPP.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 32.1%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	2.10	2.72	n/a
PP iSH%	6.17	6.17	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.51	5.19	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 19 · 10

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskFADE Rinzel's 2026-27 PP/offense expectation; Levshunov owns the PP-QB role, so cap Rinzel's PPP.

RiskPP role projected down: 2.7→2.1 PP TOI/gp (cedes PP1 QB to the newly-extended Byram - his 3.04 was the PP1-QB role he earned by H2 as a rookie (Q2-Q4 ~3.0), but Byram's contract makes Byram the guy. Drops to a PP2-QB role, hedged (not cratered - he keeps real PP2 minutes and some PP1 spillover).) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.67	1.96	n/a
Hits/60	6.01	4.96	n/a
Blks/60	3.62	3.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 19 · 10

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 7.00/60 and 2nd-half 6.56 vs a 4.96 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (59th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.01/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.55/60 and 2nd-half 3.85 vs a 3.46 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (70th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.62/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.