Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2672 GP	H233 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3178 GP · 3y
TOI	22.51	22.48	21.55	21.42	22.71
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	1.84	2.47	2.57
G	6	5	4	5	10
A	30	25	25	26	31
PTS	36	30	28	31	41
PPP	10	6	7	4	16
SOG	135	111	96	123	193
PIM	69	63	67	59	78
Hits	89	96	86	104	116
Blocks	91	117	93	138	89

Sample: 72 GP · 1,184 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

44Jake McCabe36

45Alexander Nikishin32

46Morgan Rielly32

47Aaron Ekblad32

48Alexander Romanov31

49Justin Faulk30

50Kaiden Guhle30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 67% above last season, 6 to 10.

Below his 3-year rate

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (0.61 against 1.60).

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 48% below where it started (4.80 in the first half, 2.50 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 24% below where it started (2.46 in the first half, 1.88 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kris LetangD · Pittsburgh Penguins88% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Sean DurziD · New York Rangers86% match
shared: PIM
K'Andre MillerD · Carolina Hurricanes86% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Aaron Ekblad is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.51	22.48	22.71	-1%
5v5 TOI	16.66	16.45	16.31	+1%
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	2.57	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.51: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.66: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.10: role tapered late (Q4 2.0 vs 2.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.70	3.70	5.66	-35%
G/60	0.13	0.10	0.21	-52%
iSH%	3.39	2.70	3.69	-27%
ixG/60	–	0.16	0.25	-37%
iCF/60	–	9.17	12.87	-29%
iSCF/60	–	2.13	3.59	-41%
iHDCF/60	–	0.30	0.68	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 2.7% sits near the 3.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.16 (16th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 35% (5v5 SOG/60 3.70 vs 5.66) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.52	9.69	7.74	+25%
IPP	31.20	29.67	33.07	-10%
1A/60	0.36	0.35	0.37	-6%
2A/60	0.39	0.35	0.31	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.7% vs a 7.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.10	2.18	2.57	-15%
PP iSH%	7.81	6.21	8.31	-25%
PP SOG/60	7.37	6.12	14.16	-57%
PP ixG/60	–	0.61	1.60	-62%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~2.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.41	2.38	2.66	-11%
Hits/60	3.06	3.29	3.80	-13%
Blks/60	2.95	3.80	2.73	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 22 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.94/60 and 2nd-half 2.67 below the 3.29 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.06/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.80 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.94/60 and 2nd-half 2.50 below the 3.80 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.95/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.73 3-yr mark.