Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3215 GP · 3y
TOI	21.89	22.40	21.40	21.18	20.50
PP TOI	0.30	0.30	0.38	0.23	0.23
G	5	5	4	6	5
A	23	21	16	25	24
PTS	28	26	20	31	29
PPP	1	0	0	0	1
SOG	86	79	100	59	93
PIM	70	66	73	58	58
Hits	126	107	95	117	191
Blocks	177	195	190	199	149

Sample: 80 GP · 1,453 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

41Charle-Edouard D'Astous39

42Simon Edvinsson38

43Josh Manson36

44Jake McCabe36

45Alexander Nikishin32

46Morgan Rielly32

47Aaron Ekblad32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 65% above his 3-year rate last season (7.47 against 4.54).

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 49% below where it started (0.48 in the first half, 0.24 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 25 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 45% below his 3-year rate last season (3.92 against 7.13).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings85% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jake McCabe is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.89	22.40	20.50	+9%
5v5 TOI	18.08	18.17	17.18	+6%
PP TOI	0.30	0.30	0.23	+31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.89: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.08: established top role held near 18.2 — the late dip (Q4 17.2) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.30: new coach (Jim Hiller) — late-year 0.4 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.85	2.81	3.56	-21%
G/60	0.15	0.21	0.16	+30%
iSH%	5.42	7.47	4.54	+65%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.14	-3%
iCF/60	–	6.73	8.18	-18%
iSCF/60	–	1.78	2.34	-24%
iHDCF/60	–	0.37	0.37	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 7.5% vs a 4.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.4% pulls the goal rate ~26% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 2.81 vs 3.56) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.11→0.18 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.43	10.53	10.31	+2%
IPP	34.97	35.00	34.92	+0%
1A/60	0.40	0.37	0.42	-12%
2A/60	0.43	0.33	0.45	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 35.0%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.30	0.30	0.23	+31%
PP iSH%	11.21	0.00	20.02	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.02	9.93	6.07	+64%
PP ixG/60	–	0.72	0.50	+43%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.3 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 20.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.65	2.31	2.34	-1%
Hits/60	4.73	3.92	7.13	-45%
Blks/60	5.26	5.53	4.86	+14%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 20 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.09/60 and 2nd-half 3.42 below the 3.92 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.73/60, weighting the recent decline over the 7.13 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.26/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.08/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.