Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H239 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3194 GP · 3y
TOI	18.17	17.53	19.55	15.01	19.92
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.10
G	4	5	10	-0	5
A	14	12	9	15	12
PTS	18	17	20	15	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	79	72	72	72	93
PIM	62	73	74	72	68
Hits	119	92	105	80	168
Blocks	160	141	166	118	175

Sample: 80 GP · 1,157 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

76Brenden Dillon13

77Travis Sanheim12

78Hampus Lindholm12

79Connor Murphy12

80Simon Nemec11

81Arber Xhekaj10

82Nick Seeler10

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 166 pace in the second half after 118 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 29% above last season, 92 to 119.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings90% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Kaiden GuhleD · Montreal Canadiens89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Jake McCabeD · Toronto Maple Leafs89% match
shared: Blocks, PIM, Hits
Nick SeelerD · Philadelphia Flyers88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Connor Murphy is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year (EDM, traded): Jeff Blashill CHI · pre-trade → Kris Knoblauch EDM · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.17	17.53	19.92	-12%
5v5 TOI	15.85	14.46	17.19	-16%
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.10	-69%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.17: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.85: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 17.3 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 0.04: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.36	3.53	3.65	-3%
G/60	0.19	0.26	0.11	+138%
iSH%	5.18	7.37	3.00	+146%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.14	+2%
iCF/60	–	8.45	8.24	+3%
iSCF/60	–	2.39	2.01	+19%
iHDCF/60	–	0.31	0.31	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 7.4% vs a 3.0% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.2% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.16 (1st half) to 0.13 (2nd).

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.53	9.46	7.70	+23%
IPP	32.74	35.27	30.50	+16%
1A/60	0.16	0.16	0.14	+11%
2A/60	0.42	0.31	0.34	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 9.5% (3-yr 7.7%) AND IPP 35.3% (3-yr 30.5%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~9%.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.10	-69%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.00	3.58	2.68	+33%
Hits/60	4.85	4.04	6.69	-40%
Blks/60	5.76	5.44	6.10	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.04/60 (50th pct league-wide) → 4.85 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 6.88/60 and 2nd-half 5.79 vs a 5.44 season rate (6.10 3-yr) (96th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.76/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.36/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.