Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2680 GP	H240 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	17.39	17.69	16.23	18.24	16.22
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.04
G	3	4	5	3	3
A	11	6	3	9	14
PTS	14	10	8	12	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	93	96	89	104	97
PIM	47	39	43	35	62
Hits	124	129	112	146	140
Blocks	175	153	150	156	201

Sample: 80 GP · 1,217 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

79Connor Murphy12

80Simon Nemec11

81Arber Xhekaj10

82Nick Seeler10

83Gustav Forsling9

84Timothy Liljegren9

85Martin Fehervary9

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 112 pace in the second half after 146 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 finished the year 45% below where it started (2.77 in the first half, 1.52 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

Blks/60

Blks/60 ran 31% below his 3-year rate last season (5.87 against 8.50).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brayden McNabbD · Vegas Golden Knights91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Ben ChiarotD · Detroit Red Wings88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Seeler is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year: Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.39	17.69	16.22	+9%
5v5 TOI	14.55	15.21	14.36	+6%
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.04	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.39: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 14.55: role tapered late (Q4 13.6 vs 15.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.05: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.06	4.19	4.72	-11%
G/60	0.14	0.15	0.15	+2%
iSH%	3.35	3.58	3.12	+15%
ixG/60	–	0.17	0.15	+14%
iCF/60	–	11.53	11.25	+2%
iSCF/60	–	2.17	2.38	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	0.39	0.46	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.17 (18th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.15 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 11% (5v5 SOG/60 4.19 vs 4.72) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.21 (1st half) to 0.12 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.72	7.03	8.83	-20%
IPP	21.48	17.34	28.22	-39%
1A/60	0.21	0.10	0.35	-72%
2A/60	0.21	0.05	0.24	-79%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 17.3% sits below the 28.2% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.04	-9%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.51	0.00	6.04	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.72	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.24	1.87	3.01	-38%
Hits/60	5.89	5.87	6.69	-12%
Blks/60	6.92	5.87	8.50	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 21 · 20 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.87/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 5.89 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (98th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (6.92/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.