Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H239 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3214 GP · 3y
TOI	19.31	19.28	18.63	18.65	19.51
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.07	0.03	0.06
G	5	5	4	6	5
A	19	22	26	19	16
PTS	24	27	30	25	22
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	73	74	55	92	87
PIM	36	40	44	35	31
Hits	151	111	124	100	208
Blocks	156	176	187	166	141

Sample: 81 GP · 1,276 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

82Nick Seeler10

83Gustav Forsling9

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 26 pace in the second half after 19 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 55 pace in the second half after 92 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 36% above last season, 111 to 151.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 31% above his 3-year rate last season (7.41 against 5.67).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Brayden McNabbD · Vegas Golden Knights91% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Alexander RomanovD · New York Islanders86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Martin Fehervary is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year: Spencer Carbery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.31	19.28	19.51	-1%
5v5 TOI	15.95	15.76	16.66	-5%
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.06	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.95: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.05: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.80	3.24	3.55	-9%
G/60	0.18	0.24	0.20	+19%
iSH%	6.54	7.41	5.67	+31%
ixG/60	–	0.19	0.18	+7%
iCF/60	–	7.61	8.45	-10%
iSCF/60	–	2.54	2.44	+4%
iHDCF/60	–	0.42	0.51	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.19 (20th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.18 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.25 (1st half) to 0.12 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.28	9.70	8.77	+11%
IPP	36.55	40.55	33.88	+20%
1A/60	0.27	0.24	0.27	-11%
2A/60	0.39	0.56	0.30	+85%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 40.6% vs 33.9% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.56 vs 3-yr 0.30) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.06	-13%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.98	0.00	4.91	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.74	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.96	1.74	1.24	+40%
Hits/60	6.27	4.70	8.61	-45%
Blks/60	5.11	5.55	4.44	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 21 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.70/60 (57th pct league-wide) → 6.27 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.11/60 projected).