Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H242 GP	H129 GP	Prev 3241 GP · 3y
TOI	22.60	22.60	20.91	22.07	22.60
PP TOI	0.84	0.80	0.31	1.51	1.74
G	8	3	3	4	10
A	26	29	25	34	32
PTS	34	32	28	38	42
PPP	6	8	2	17	11
SOG	149	156	122	206	165
PIM	20	16	16	16	24
Hits	48	42	40	44	62
Blocks	123	134	146	117	116

Sample: 71 GP · 1,347 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

83Gustav Forsling9

84Timothy Liljegren9

89Owen Power8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 79% below where it started (1.47 in the first half, 0.31 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 65% below his 3-year rate last season (1.74 against 5.04).

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 122 pace in the second half after 206 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 25% below last season, 8 to 6.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Morgan RiellyD · Toronto Maple Leafs91% match
shared: SOG
Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars85% match
shared: SOG
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators84% match
shared: SOG
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres84% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Noah Hanifin is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Craig (VGK) new voice

Last year: Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.60	22.60	22.60	-0%
5v5 TOI	18.67	18.97	18.02	+5%
PP TOI	0.84	0.80	1.74	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 19 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.60: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 18.67: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.84: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.04	5.17	5.17	+0%
G/60	0.12	0.09	0.26	-65%
iSH%	4.05	1.74	5.04	-65%
ixG/60	–	0.19	0.24	-20%
iCF/60	–	12.03	12.15	-1%
iSCF/60	–	2.72	3.30	-18%
iHDCF/60	–	0.40	0.64	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 19 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 1.7% sits near the 5.0% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.19 (20th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.96	9.01	8.91	+1%
IPP	35.69	34.50	37.15	-7%
1A/60	0.33	0.27	0.43	-37%
2A/60	0.43	0.53	0.38	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 19 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.0%, IPP 34.5%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.53 vs 3-yr 0.38) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.84	0.80	1.74	-54%
PP iSH%	5.60	0.00	10.00	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.07	10.59	11.42	-7%
PP ixG/60	–	1.48	0.87	+70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 19 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.8 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 10.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.58	0.45	0.79	-43%
Hits/60	1.70	1.43	2.27	-37%
Blks/60	3.87	3.92	3.79	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 10 · 19 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.10/60 and 2nd-half 1.31 below the 1.43 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.70/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.27 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.92/60 (80th pct league-wide) → 3.87 projected.