Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2656 GP	H225 GP	H131 GP	Prev 367 GP · 1y
TOI	20.50	20.47	18.51	20.64	20.62
PP TOI	2.50	2.96	2.36	3.43	2.51
G	11	15	6	21	12
A	25	25	33	18	28
PTS	36	39	39	40	40
PPP	11	13	7	19	12
SOG	120	116	104	125	137
PIM	36	35	26	43	42
Hits	65	67	76	61	67
Blocks	84	91	71	106	89

Sample: 56 GP · 933 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

84Timothy Liljegren9

85Martin Fehervary9

89Owen Power8

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 33 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 21 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (0.19 against 0.53).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 34% below his 3-year rate last season (6.15 against 9.38).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Carter YakemchukD · Ottawa Senators89% match
shared: PPP, G
Artyom LevshunovD · Chicago Blackhawks87% match
shared: PPP
Bowen ByramD · Chicago Blackhawks86% match
shared: G
Alexander NikishinD · Carolina Hurricanes85% match
shared: G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where John Klingberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 2
fills: SOG, A
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 2
fills: A, SOG
Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	20.50	20.47	20.62	-1%
5v5 TOI	16.65	16.66	16.83	-1%
PP TOI	2.50	2.96	2.51	+18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 16 · 9

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 20.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.65: established top role held near 16.7 — the late dip (Q4 16.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 2.50: role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 3.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.91	3.09	3.41	-9%
G/60	0.24	0.19	0.32	-41%
iSH%	8.41	6.15	9.38	-34%
ixG/60	–	0.16	0.18	-11%
iCF/60	–	10.03	8.73	+15%
iSCF/60	–	3.02	2.98	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	0.39	0.48	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 16 · 9

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.1% sits near the 9.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.16 (16th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.19 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.92	11.63	8.47	+37%
IPP	37.66	34.80	43.16	-19%
1A/60	0.33	0.19	0.53	-64%
2A/60	0.33	0.64	0.16	+300%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 16 · 9

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.6% vs a 8.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.03 vs 8.73) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.64 vs 3-yr 0.16) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.50	2.96	2.51	+18%
PP iSH%	8.32	18.49	5.11	+262%
PP SOG/60	10.72	9.79	13.90	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	0.81	0.97	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 16 · 9

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 3.0→2.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.1 vs 3.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (18.5% vs 5.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.81) — point-shot D and pass-first QBs regress hardest.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.47	1.54	1.49	+3%
Hits/60	2.78	2.89	2.87	+1%
Blks/60	3.25	3.67	3.67	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 17 · 16 · 9

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.22/60 and 2nd-half 3.27 vs a 2.89 season rate (2.87 3-yr) (37th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.78/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.01/60 and 2nd-half 2.79 below the 3.67 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.25/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.67 3-yr mark.