Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2681 GP	H242 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3234 GP · 3y
TOI	22.11	21.65	21.19	20.19	22.67
PP TOI	1.80	0.94	0.38	1.54	1.74
G	7	8	9	7	6
A	▲36	21	24	18	32
PTS	▲43	29	33	25	38
PPP	▲12	0	0	0	7
SOG	125	122	120	123	132
PIM	22	16	23	9	24
Hits	25	30	21	41	34
Blocks	104	96	113	78	103

Sample: 81 GP · 1,449 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

86Noah Hanifin8

87John Klingberg8

88Tyler Tucker8

89Owen Power8

90Carter Yakemchuk7

91Vladislav Gavrikov7

92Niko Mikkola7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP2-QB role with Byram out (Dahlin owns PP1); assists ~36, PPP ~12 off a shared 2-D second unit with Zellweger. Trimmed from 2.0 TOI / 13 PPP — both D can't each own the PP2 minutes.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 92% above last season, 0.94 to 1.80.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 71% above last season, 21 to 36.

Second-half fade

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 63% below where it started (1.66 in the first half, 0.60 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 113 pace in the second half after 78 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Noah HanifinD · Vegas Golden Knights84% match
Morgan RiellyD · Toronto Maple Leafs81% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames80% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers79% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Owen Power is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	22.11	21.65	22.67	-5%
5v5 TOI	18.77	17.89	18.34	-2%
PP TOI	1.80	0.94	1.74	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 24 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 22.11: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 18.77: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 1.80: Byram gone — recovers his 2024-25 PP form (1.60 TOI, 2.84 p60). Dahlin locks PP1 QB, so Power runs a 3F-2D PP2 alongside Zellweger; ~1.8 as the primary PP2 D (hedged from a solo-QB 2.0 since he shares the unit).

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.60	4.47	4.00	+12%
G/60	0.26	0.29	0.20	+48%
iSH%	5.70	6.49	4.91	+32%
ixG/60	–	0.22	0.22	-0%
iCF/60	–	9.03	8.33	+8%
iSCF/60	–	2.86	3.03	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	0.46	0.64	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 24 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 6.5% vs a 4.9% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.22 (25th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.7% pulls the goal rate ~9% down.

TailwindShot volume up 12% (5v5 SOG/60 4.47 vs 4.00) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.05	9.77	10.47	-7%
IPP	36.32	38.10	33.72	+13%
1A/60	0.25	0.17	0.33	-49%
2A/60	0.57	0.58	0.52	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 24 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.8%, IPP 38.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.03 vs 8.33) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.80	0.94	1.74	-46%
PP iSH%	1.13	0.00	2.03	-100%
PP SOG/60	2.42	5.54	7.23	-23%
PP ixG/60	–	0.53	0.44	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 24 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.9→1.8 PP TOI/gp (Byram gone — recovers his 2024-25 PP form (1.60 TOI, 2.84 p60). Dahlin locks PP1 QB, so Power runs a 3F-2D PP2 alongside Zellweger; ~1.8 as the primary PP2 D (hedged from a solo-QB 2.0 since he shares the unit).) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.53 vs 0.44) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.86	0.66	0.67	-2%
Hits/60	0.88	1.12	1.24	-10%
Blks/60	3.32	3.27	3.38	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 20 · 24 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.18/60 and 2nd-half 0.60 below the 1.12 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.88/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.24 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.27/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 3.32 projected.