Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H231 GP	H138 GP	Prev 390 GP · 3y
TOI	14.31	14.36	15.15	13.61	13.98
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.12	0.04
G	5	4	5	2	5
A	12	17	21	13	7
PTS	17	20	26	15	12
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	73	80	75	83	65
PIM	105	96	97	95	117
Hits	149	119	143	100	178
Blocks	81	61	67	56	84

Sample: 69 GP · 906 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

85Martin Fehervary9

86Noah Hanifin8

87John Klingberg8

88Tyler Tucker8

89Owen Power8

90Carter Yakemchuk7

91Vladislav Gavrikov7

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 51% above where it started (0.38 in the first half, 0.56 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 33% above last season, 61 to 81.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 33% below his 3-year rate last season (6.49 against 9.68).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth94% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens91% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars90% match
shared: PIM, Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyler Tucker is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.31	14.36	13.98	+3%
5v5 TOI	13.75	13.13	13.22	-1%
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	0.04	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 20 · 11

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.75: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 14.1, Q4 14.4) over the full-year 13.1
PP TOI → 0.02: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.09	4.37	3.58	+22%
G/60	0.24	0.20	0.25	-20%
iSH%	5.78	4.58	6.99	-34%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.11	+104%
iCF/60	–	10.53	9.68	+9%
iSCF/60	–	2.91	2.42	+20%
iHDCF/60	–	0.46	0.20	+127%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 20 · 11

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.6% vs 7.0% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (26th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 5.8%, lifting the goal rate ~18%.

TailwindShot volume up 22% (5v5 SOG/60 4.37 vs 3.58) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.14→0.33 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.84	11.21	9.18	+22%
IPP	37.33	39.65	26.77	+48%
1A/60	0.28	0.40	0.10	+294%
2A/60	0.33	0.53	0.25	+112%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 20 · 11

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.2% (3-yr 9.2%) AND IPP 39.6% (3-yr 26.8%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~7%.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.53 vs 9.68) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.46 vs 0.20) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.53 vs 3-yr 0.25) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.03	0.04	-8%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 20 · 11

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	5.09	5.23	6.35	-18%
Hits/60	7.77	6.49	9.68	-33%
Blks/60	3.39	2.91	4.18	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 18 · 20 · 11

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 6.49/60 (72nd pct league-wide) → 7.77 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.40/60 and 2nd-half 3.11 vs a 2.91 season rate (4.18 3-yr) (60th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.39/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.46/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.