Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3245 GP · 3y
TOI	24.13	24.68	23.77	22.88	21.65
PP TOI	3.59	3.63	3.80	3.48	3.00
G	17	21	23	19	13
A	66	74	87	62	50
PTS	83	95	110	80	63
PPP	32	33	39	27	25
SOG	225	221	230	212	204
PIM	29	30	31	29	31
Hits	39	29	36	22	66
Blocks	101	101	93	108	92

Sample: 82 GP · 1,465 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

3Zach Werenski126

4Quinn Hughes117

5Rasmus Dahlin113

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.24 in the first half, 9.16 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 39 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 55% below his 3-year rate last season (1.15 against 2.53).

Top of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (3.63).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Erik KarlssonD · Pittsburgh Penguins90% match
shared: G, A, SOG, PPP
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jackets88% match
shared: A, SOG, G, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wild88% match
shared: PPP, A, SOG, G
Josh MorrisseyD · Winnipeg Jets87% match
shared: A, G, PPP, SOG

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Evan Bouchard is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.13	24.68	21.65	+14%
5v5 TOI	17.86	17.88	17.21	+4%
PP TOI	3.59	3.63	3.00	+21%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.13: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.86: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.59: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 3.8 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.69	5.69	6.17	-8%
G/60	0.33	0.37	0.33	+14%
iSH%	5.89	6.50	5.27	+23%
ixG/60	–	0.32	0.28	+15%
iCF/60	–	12.61	14.40	-12%
iSCF/60	–	4.01	3.98	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	0.45	0.48	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.32 (33rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.28 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.26→0.36 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.30	10.87	9.15	+19%
IPP	48.92	52.81	41.02	+29%
1A/60	0.58	0.78	0.33	+138%
2A/60	0.71	0.74	0.70	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 10.9% (3-yr 9.2%) AND IPP 52.8% (3-yr 41.0%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~6%.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.59	3.63	3.00	+21%
PP iSH%	10.43	11.87	9.85	+20%
PP SOG/60	11.68	11.88	10.78	+10%
PP ixG/60	–	1.18	0.92	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.18 vs 0.92) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.94	1.06	1.08	-2%
Hits/60	1.55	1.15	2.53	-55%
Blks/60	2.93	2.99	3.57	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.37/60 and 2nd-half 1.31 below the 1.15 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.55/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.53 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.83/60 and 2nd-half 2.49 below the 2.99 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.93/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.57 3-yr mark.