Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H239 GP	H130 GP	Prev 3191 GP · 3y
TOI	24.29	24.39	23.34	22.19	23.65
PP TOI	3.06	3.09	2.91	3.33	3.08
G	11	13	20	4	11
A	49	59	59	60	41
PTS	60	72	79	64	52
PPP	19	27	25	30	15
SOG	142	132	142	119	144
PIM	76	74	64	87	76
Hits	114	94	84	107	143
Blocks	157	153	141	170	151

Sample: 69 GP · 1,169 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

5Rasmus Dahlin113

6Evan Bouchard112

7Roman Josi105

8Charlie McAvoy104

9Matthew Schaefer103

10Brandt Clarke94

11Darren Raddysh94

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (3.08 in the first half, 14.30 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 61% above his 3-year rate last season (0.67 against 0.42).

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 30% below last season, 27 to 19.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 34% below where it started (5.99 in the first half, 3.98 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mikhail SergachevD · Utah Mammoth81% match
shared: A, PPP, G, Blocks
Moritz SeiderD · Detroit Red Wings80% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks, Hits
Mike MathesonD · Montreal Canadiens78% match
shared: Blocks, A, G
Kris LetangD · Pittsburgh Penguins78% match
shared: Hits, PPP, A, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Charlie McAvoy is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 1
fills: SOG
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 1
fills: SOG
Matthew SchaeferD · New York Islanderscovers 1
fills: SOG
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 1
fills: SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.29	24.39	23.65	+3%
5v5 TOI	17.44	16.94	17.28	-2%
PP TOI	3.06	3.09	3.08	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 11 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.29: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.44: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 3.06: established top role held near 3.1 — the late dip (Q4 2.7) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.26	4.26	4.33	-2%
G/60	0.35	0.41	0.29	+42%
iSH%	8.15	9.62	6.68	+44%
ixG/60	–	0.29	0.25	+17%
iCF/60	–	9.91	9.27	+7%
iSCF/60	–	3.44	3.40	+1%
iHDCF/60	–	1.03	0.75	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 11 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.29 (31st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.25 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.27→0.33 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.94	12.44	9.67	+29%
IPP	45.13	45.43	43.19	+5%
1A/60	0.52	0.67	0.42	+61%
2A/60	0.50	0.46	0.54	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 11 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskRegress points toward his multi-year baseline on team-finishing normalization. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.4% vs a 9.7% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 1.03 vs 0.75) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.06	3.09	3.08	+0%
PP iSH%	8.56	9.96	7.45	+34%
PP SOG/60	6.21	5.62	6.83	-18%
PP ixG/60	–	0.66	0.66	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 11 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~3.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.75	1.74	2.66	-34%
Hits/60	3.99	3.39	5.27	-36%
Blks/60	4.76	4.67	4.89	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 11 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.15/60 and 2nd-half 2.81 below the 3.39 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.99/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.27 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.76/60 projected).