Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2677 GP	H240 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3166 GP · 3y
TOI	21.42	21.54	20.44	20.53	20.94
PP TOI	2.21	2.08	2.35	1.79	2.84
G	13	13	12	13	18
A	37	28	41	13	46
PTS	50	40	53	26	64
PPP	18	15	20	9	25
SOG	223	216	222	210	258
PIM	49	53	47	60	49
Hits	83	93	92	93	77
Blocks	95	82	80	84	111

Sample: 77 GP · 1,305 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

17Jackson LaCombe79

18Brandon Montour77

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 41 pace in the second half after 13 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PPP

Power play points ran at a 20 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 47% below his 3-year rate last season (0.23 against 0.43).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 27% below his 3-year rate last season (2.08 against 2.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Darren RaddyshD · Toronto Maple Leafs91% match
shared: G, SOG, PPP, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Kraken90% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, PIM
Jakob ChychrunD · Washington Capitals86% match
shared: SOG, G, PPP, A
Vince DunnD · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: SOG, PPP, G, A

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dougie Hamilton is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Charlie McAvoyD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: A, Hits
Filip HronekD · Vancouver Canuckscovers 2
fills: A, Hits
Seth JonesD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: Hits, A
Moritz SeiderD · Detroit Red Wingscovers 2
fills: Hits, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	21.42	21.54	20.94	+3%
5v5 TOI	16.78	16.95	16.72	+1%
PP TOI	2.21	2.08	2.84	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 22 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 21.42: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 16.78: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 2.21: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.8

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.68	6.89	8.24	-16%
G/60	0.30	0.28	0.39	-28%
iSH%	4.53	4.06	4.74	-14%
ixG/60	–	0.32	0.35	-8%
iCF/60	–	16.23	17.93	-9%
iSCF/60	–	3.82	5.17	-26%
iHDCF/60	–	0.60	0.82	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 22 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 4.1% sits near the 4.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.32 (33rd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 16% (5v5 SOG/60 6.89 vs 8.24) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.29→0.34 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.81	6.89	9.32	-26%
IPP	38.64	35.75	43.36	-18%
1A/60	0.31	0.23	0.43	-47%
2A/60	0.49	0.23	0.59	-61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 22 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 35.7% sits below the 43.4% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.21	2.08	2.84	-27%
PP iSH%	14.67	12.15	15.47	-21%
PP SOG/60	12.27	12.35	13.99	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	1.00	1.25	-20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 22 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextKeep Hamilton PP1 for now; hold latent PP1 upside on Luke Hughes as an in-season buy.

ContextPP role steady at ~2.2 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.89	2.02	1.95	+4%
Hits/60	3.19	3.54	3.07	+15%
Blks/60	3.45	2.99	4.13	-28%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 21 · 22 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.54/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 3.19 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.99/60 (62nd pct league-wide) → 3.45 projected.