Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 382 GP · 1y
TOI	24.22	23.77	22.28	21.95	22.73
PP TOI	3.71	3.30	3.59	3.02	2.81
G	9	12	13	11	6
A	65	66	63	69	60
PTS	74	78	76	80	66
PPP	23	20	20	20	26
SOG	114	124	111	137	91
PIM	44	34	52	16	34
Hits	30	31	25	37	40
Blocks	136	137	148	126	123

Sample: 82 GP · 1,501 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

18Brandon Montour77

19Miro Heiskanen75

20Dougie Hamilton75

21Lane Hutson74

22John Carlson73

23Josh Morrissey71

24Darnell Nurse66

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 74% above where it started (5.86 in the first half, 10.19 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 82% above his 3-year rate last season (0.80 against 0.44).

Second-half fade

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 finished the year 46% below where it started (5.35 in the first half, 2.87 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 25% below last season, 12 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Adam FoxD · New York Rangers83% match
shared: A, PPP, G
Mikhail SergachevD · Utah Mammoth82% match
shared: PPP, A, G, Blocks
Brock FaberD · Minnesota Wild80% match
shared: A, PPP, Blocks, G
Morgan RiellyD · Toronto Maple Leafs80% match
shared: A, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Lane Hutson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Nikita ZadorovD · Boston Bruinscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	24.22	23.77	22.73	+5%
5v5 TOI	18.47	18.32	18.45	-1%
PP TOI	3.71	3.30	2.81	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 24.22: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 18.47: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 3.71: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.6, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.3; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Hold a locked-in PP1 quarterback line with strong PPP.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.75	3.64	3.05	+19%
G/60	0.27	0.28	0.20	+40%
iSH%	7.12	7.69	6.56	+17%
ixG/60	–	0.27	0.17	+59%
iCF/60	–	9.19	9.44	-3%
iSCF/60	–	3.64	2.54	+43%
iHDCF/60	–	0.88	0.44	+100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.27 (31st pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.17 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 19% (5v5 SOG/60 3.64 vs 3.05) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.22→0.33 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	13.08	13.64	10.51	+30%
IPP	49.29	50.00	44.71	+12%
1A/60	0.65	0.80	0.44	+82%
2A/60	0.70	0.76	0.67	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Engstrom as a depth MON D for 2026-27; bump only if the Lane Hutson pairing materializes.

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 13.6% vs a 10.5% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.88 vs 0.44) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	3.71	3.30	2.81	+17%
PP iSH%	10.45	11.03	10.00	+10%
PP SOG/60	3.13	3.99	2.60	+53%
PP ixG/60	–	0.53	0.48	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHold a locked-in PP1 quarterback line with strong PPP.

TailwindPP role projected up: 3.3→3.7 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 3.6, Q4 3.8) over the full-year 3.3; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Hold a locked-in PP1 quarterback line with strong PPP.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.53 vs 0.48) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.45	1.12	1.19	-6%
Hits/60	1.08	1.12	1.47	-24%
Blks/60	4.47	4.51	4.40	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.68/60 and 2nd-half 0.88 below the 1.12 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.08/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.47 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (88th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.47/60 projected).