Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2680 GP	H237 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3160 GP · 2y
TOI	25.69	24.68	23.62	23.28	25.24
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	0.75	1.40	2.41
G	▲15	16	15	16	9
A	▲36	37	43	32	30
PTS	▲51	52	58	48	39
PPP	10	11	9	13	13
SOG	170	177	188	168	133
PIM	45	40	66	17	25
Hits	48	34	36	32	51
Blocks	133	152	109	189	136

Sample: 80 GP · 1,595 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

30Nikita Zadorov59

31Noah Dobson57

32Thomas Chabot57

33Brock Faber55

34Vince Dunn54

35Seth Jones53

36Filip Hronek49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): High-end asset (Devon Toews comp). Quinn Hughes owns the top unit now, but Faber ran the 2nd unit last season and keeps that job, so the PP bump is a small one. The Hughes pairing is what carries his value, and his 5v5 scoring rate climbed through the 2nd half.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindHold/nudge Faber's 5v5 line up; do not assume the PP1 loss cuts his total. · Fantasy hockey defenseman analysis

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 48% below where it started (1.39 in the first half, 0.72 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 41% above last season, 34 to 48.

Second-half fade

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 50% below where it started (6.00 in the first half, 3.00 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 51% above his 3-year rate last season (8.14 against 5.38).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Thomas HarleyD · Dallas Stars91% match
shared: G, Blocks, A, SOG
Thomas ChabotD · Ottawa Senators87% match
shared: Blocks, A, G, SOG
John CarlsonD · Tampa Bay Lightning87% match
shared: G, A, Blocks, PPP
Jackson LaCombeD · Anaheim Ducks86% match
shared: G, A, Blocks, PPP

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Brock Faber is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Jeremy LauzonD · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	25.69	24.68	25.24	-2%
5v5 TOI	20.91	19.94	18.97	+5%
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	2.41	-55%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 16

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 25.69: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias; Hold/nudge Faber's 5v5 line up; do not assume the PP1 loss cuts his total.
5v5 TOI → 20.91: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias; Hold/nudge Faber's 5v5 line up; do not assume the PP1 loss cuts his total.
PP TOI → 1.15: ran the 2nd unit last season and keeps it behind Quinn Hughes, so a modest PP minutes bump

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.70	5.53	4.01	+38%
G/60	0.39	0.45	0.22	+108%
iSH%	6.76	8.14	5.38	+51%
ixG/60	–	0.25	0.18	+35%
iCF/60	–	11.77	9.35	+26%
iSCF/60	–	3.16	2.93	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	0.68	0.55	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 16

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.25 (29th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.18 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 38% (5v5 SOG/60 5.53 vs 4.01) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.48	9.72	8.42	+15%
IPP	38.93	39.39	35.99	+9%
1A/60	0.30	0.38	0.28	+38%
2A/60	0.31	0.34	0.31	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 16

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 39.4%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.77 vs 9.35) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.68 vs 0.55) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.15	1.10	2.41	-55%
PP iSH%	9.60	7.65	10.22	-25%
PP SOG/60	9.60	8.89	7.61	+17%
PP ixG/60	–	0.37	0.54	-32%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 16

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.60	1.32	0.93	+41%
Hits/60	1.47	1.09	1.62	-33%
Blks/60	3.82	4.55	3.88	+17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 16

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 2.26/60 and 2nd-half 1.33 vs a 1.09 season rate (1.62 3-yr) (9th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.47/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.39/60 and 2nd-half 3.00 below the 4.55 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.82/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.88 3-yr mark.